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          blue background, A younf woman holding a large black sign that says VOTE ! in white letters

          Scottish elections: young people more likely to vote if they started at 16 – new study

          Healthcare word seen in a scrabble

          “Leave no one behind” – the Health Foundation’s report into health inequalities in Scotland 2023.

          Sign saying NHS Greater Galsgow & Clyde in front of a hospital building

          Concern over patients waiting in corridors for free beds at Glasgow Superhospital

          A row of tall houses on the left, with parked cars in front on the side of the street

          Saving Scotland’s tenements

          Ben Nevis. Forground has green shrubbery, then background a mountain with two tops. Blue sky with a few streaky clouds

          Exploring the Highest Mountain in the British Isles: A Guide to Ben Nevis

          Image via Steller Systems, a potential candidate.

          Cancelling future frigates could be final nail in the coffin for the UK

          A hospital corridor with trolleys on the sides.

          Glasgow hospitals halt non-urgent operations due to pressure

          A scene of people demonstrating, holding Scotland flags. One man wears a tartan cap and holds a blue flag with both the Scottish cross and the EU stars on it.

          Is Alister Jack sane?

          Cartoon by Stan

          Film reviews award season

          Trending Tags

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          blue background, A younf woman holding a large black sign that says VOTE ! in white letters

          Scottish elections: young people more likely to vote if they started at 16 – new study

          A scene of people demonstrating, holding Scotland flags. One man wears a tartan cap and holds a blue flag with both the Scottish cross and the EU stars on it.

          Is Alister Jack sane?

          Image Malcom Laverty

          The Brown plan

          The climate change impacts of Russia’s war with Ukraine

          Britain wastes £1bn on drones to monitor English Channel

          The Autumn Statement – time to take a closer look

          Photo Mtaylor848, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

          Christmas cheer for Tesco if grim reading for the political classes

          Scottish independence isn’t going away

          Russia as a low-tech nation

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          A row of tall houses on the left, with parked cars in front on the side of the street

          Saving Scotland’s tenements

          A large red researcgh vessel in the sea with ice sheets all around it on the water.

          Rosyth shipyard attracts UK Government contract to maintain fleet of scientific research vessels

          large posts saying 'Glasgow Airport Business Park' on the left and right of a road leading away from the main road in the front. . On that road leading away building with walls almost entirely existing of windows.

          Why doing business in Scotland may be better for your corporate wellbeing

          A mountain of spools forming a tree on the left, a sandy area to the right and a row of houses at the back. mountains in the distance on the right

          The Ullapool Giving Tree

          Electric off-roader heralds return of vehicle mass-production in Scotland after 40 years

          Photo Mtaylor848, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

          Christmas cheer for Tesco if grim reading for the political classes

          Ferguson Marine will weather the storm

          Order placed for remaining five Type 26 Frigates on the Clyde

          Police Scotland not investigating Scottish government over ferry contract criminality

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            Healthcare word seen in a scrabble

            “Leave no one behind” – the Health Foundation’s report into health inequalities in Scotland 2023.

            Sign saying NHS Greater Galsgow & Clyde in front of a hospital building

            Concern over patients waiting in corridors for free beds at Glasgow Superhospital

            A hospital corridor with trolleys on the sides.

            Glasgow hospitals halt non-urgent operations due to pressure

            Two more unions reject Scottish Government NHS pay offer

            GMB union reject Scottish Government pay offer to NHS staff

            Lymphocites gathering

            How careful should we be when choosing a scientific term?

            Code Black – A mayday from the Queen Elizabeth University Hospital

            The challenges facing mental health care in Scotland

            Illustration by author

            What are the boundaries to push science to its safety limits for the benefit of discoveries?

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              Ardnish wildfire by Leslie Barrie, CC BY-SA 2.0 Creative Commons — Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic — CC BY-SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons'

              Fire threats in the Scottish countryside

              Wood stove at the foot of the bed in the Danish Blue room at Pig Hill Inn, Cold Spring, New York. Printed with permission and confirmed to be licensed under the terms of the cc-by-2.0.

              When smoke gets in your eyes

              Opening of the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP27 in Egypt. Photo courtesy of the UNFCCC

              COP27 and the inconvenient truth

              Viscum album in trees

              Night of the strangling figs: a biological horror story

              Out & about with Charlie Mac: Cycling to the heart of Scotland – the National Cycle Network 7

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              Home Scottish Independence

              There is a case for a second Scottish independence referendum

              Referendums may be divisive, but denying them could be worse.

              Giuseppe BignardibyGiuseppe Bignardi
              26-12-2022 10:02
              in Scottish Independence
              Image LornaMCampbell, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

              Image LornaMCampbell, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons.

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              It might even strengthen the union.

              The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence showed a 55% majority in favour of the union. However, there have been a number of events since 2014 that have resulted in calls for a second referendum.

              First of all, there was Brexit. The British parliament implemented a hard Brexit on the basis of a referendum with a thin majority of 51.9% and despite the fact that two of the UK’s nations (Scotland and Northern Ireland) voted to remain in the EU.

              Subsequent opinion polls even suggested a reversed majority in favour of Remain, with one recent poll indicating that only 32% of the British public now thinks it was right to leave the EU.

              In 2016, the Scottish first minister requested that Scotland should remain inside the European Single Market. The British government did not bother to consider this proposal, although Boris Johnson subsequently agreed on continued membership of both the single market and the customs union for Northern Ireland.

              The Scottish opinion polls have also changed since 2014: in 2020/2021 there seemed to be a majority in favour of independence. More recent opinion polls, however, are finely balanced, with support for independence hovering between around 49 and 50 percent.

              The third important change has been in relation to the economic case for a viable independent Scotland. Scotland has a gap between tax revenues and expenditure, which could be problematic if Scotland became an independent state. This “fiscal deficit” could only be partially filled if North Sea oil and gas revenues from Scottish waters were transferred to an independent Scotland.

              However, the recent spike in energy prices has meant that an independent Scotland could count on greater revenues. This is not, however, a valid long-term consideration, as fossil fuels prices are likely to drop and their extraction will decrease as we move away from fossil fuels and towards renewable energy sources.

              Referendum on independence

              Nicola Sturgeon had planned to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence in October 2023. However, the Supreme Court has now ruled that a second independence referendum, even just an advisory one, cannot take place without the approval of the British government.

              According to Nicola Sturgeon, the only democratic option left would be to transform the next general election into a virtual referendum, in which a majority for nationalist parties in Scotland would imply majority support for independence.

              Whether Scotland should be independent is a matter for the Scots to decide. Scottish politicians have been more honest about the damage caused by Brexit, but a separation from the rest of the UK would cause further damage to the Scottish economy.

              However, it seems to me that Nicola Sturgeon does have a case in calling for a second referendum. Denying this request would contradict the assertion that the UK is a voluntary partnership of nations.

              Gavin McCrone, the author of a recently published book – After Brexit, the Economics of Scottish Independence, 2022 –, argues that the rejection of a second referendum would not be a tenable position if there was evidence of sustained support for independence.

              According to McCrone, our first-past-the-post electoral system has bolstered support for independence in Scotland, where they see the Conservatives as imposing hard-right policies in the past 12 years, even though they represent a minority in the UK and an even smaller share of the vote in Scotland.

              The Conservatives are also the party that has always opposed just devolution, with Boris Johnson recently defining Scottish devolution as a mistake.

              If a second referendum was to take place, it should not be decided by a 51% vote for independence on the day, as public opinion is volatile.

              McCrone argues that we should follow John Major’s suggestion of two referendums, one on the principle of independence and the second at a later stage to ensure that the public still favour independence once all the details and implications have been thrashed out. The People’s Vote had campaigned for the same approach in relation to Brexit.

              It may also be wrong to offer a choice just between the status quo and full independence. An alternative option could be enhanced devolution, or a federal UK, as proposed by the Scottish LibDems.

              Referendums may be divisive, but denying them could be worse.

              Tags: DemocracyScotland
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              Giuseppe Bignardi

              Giuseppe Bignardi

              Giuseppe Bignardi is a retired microbiology/infection NHS consultant who lives in Durham. He writes primarily for North East Bylines and has an interest in healthcare, Covid and Brexit. He originally became involved in Bylines to argue for more progressive policies.

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