The Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) latest report on Scottish schools outline the challenges and opportunities facing national and local government across Scotland.
The IFS report makes challenging reading for all those involved in Scottish education. With pupil numbers predicted to fall by 90,000 nationally until 2040 – a fall of 12.5% from 2024 to 2040. This dynamic will demand both a national and local responses to the changing demographics.
The current situation
Spending on schools is the responsibility of local councils.
For the year 2025-2026, Scotland will spend £10,100 per pupil. This is more than any other part of the UK. In comparison, England plans to spend £8,210 per pupil, approximately 20% less. The educational outcomes of this divergence in investment are disputed, but that is a separate question.
If teacher numbers are maintained at their current levels, then the pupil-teacher ratio would fall from the current 14:1 to 12:1 by 2040. This is lower than at any point in recent history.
The decisions that need to be made
A different response could offer councils the opportunities to make savings. School closures are highly emotive issues, particularly in smaller Highland communities where the presence of a school can be a crucial factor as to whether young families choose to move to these locations.
The IFS states:
‘’Alternatively, the fall in pupil numbers could offer councils a chance to make savings. If policymakers chose to freeze pupil–teacher ratios at 2024 levels, then teacher numbers could drop by 1,000, which would generate in-year savings of about £65–120 million by 2027. Cutting teacher numbers can be challenging in practical terms, however, as it requires reducing the number of classes or schools.’’
School closures also mean more children travelling significant distances for their education. This presents challenges with local authorities having to commit to keeping the school run routes gritted in the winter to make them as safe as they possibly can be for the children in their communities. There are questions about educational outcomes for pupils who commute long distances to and from their schools. These are crucial questions that our local authorities and councillors will have to consider.
Other challenges facing Scottish schools
The IFS report further states:
‘’An additional factor shaping the trade-offs in school spending is the rise in pupils with additional support needs (ASN). Scotland has seen a more than fourfold increase in pupils classed as having ASN since 2010, with more than 40% of all pupils having ASN in 2024. This has mainly been driven by increases in pupils with social, emotional and behavioural difficulties or having English as an additional language. We also see a more than fourfold increase in the number of pupils with autistic spectrum disorder, from 6,500 in 2010 to more than 30,000 in 2023. A similar trend among pupils with special educational needs has also been seen in England, although the definition of ASN in Scotland encompasses a broader range of needs.’’
ASN provision challenges schools and teachers throughout the UK. Smaller class sizes make the job of the teacher easier. However, there has to be better training, both initial teacher training and ongoing in–service support for teachers, as well as support for individual pupils in the classroom. We need all our pupils to fulfil their potential. We need the best educated citizenry that we can afford. Our economic futures are at stake, even those of us who do not have ‘skin in the game’; that is, children in the school system.
More in education.
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