A return to a Cold War-style military presence is unlikely in Shetland for the time being, even as the isles’ strategic relevance grows as part of the Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap (GIUK gap).
Speaking to Shetland News earlier this week, the editor of the UK Defence Journal George Allison said while Shetland is close to “strategically important operating areas” there is “no credible evidence that NATO anticipates a conventional attack scenario involving Shetland”.
Vulnerable subsea infrastructure
Concern about Russian surveillance of subsea infrastructure around Shetland, and the north of Scotland more generally, have been raised for years, most recently around the activities of the ‘spy ship’ Yantar and the interception of the tanker Bella 1 by US forces.
Only last week Isles MP Alistair Carmichael called on the government to restore a permanent and dedicated military presence in the isles in response to the changed geopolitical significance of NATO’s northern flank.
“Between recent threats to Greenland, Russian spy ship incursions and the interception of Russian tankers in the North Atlantic in recent weeks, the High North is rapidly becoming one of the most significant arenas for the UK’s political and military interests – and the Northern Isles are the gateway to that arena,” the MP said when speaking in parliament last Monday.
Defence Secretary John Healey did not respond directly to the Orkney and Shetland MP’s question but spoke about how deeply the UK values the role Shetland and Scotland plays in reinforcing the security of the UK.
Defence Analyst George Allison:
UK Defence Journal editor and defence analyst George Allison said the government’s response followed a familiar pattern in that it spoke about national capability rather than details.
He said government was reluctant to give any public commitment that could “be interpreted as signalling a capability gap” or invite “adversaries to draw conclusions about where the UK believes it is weak”.
However, there is no doubt that “Shetland’s strategic relevance is increasing” but “the frontline for the region is in the ‘grey zone’, rather than a return to Cold War-style military presence”.
Grey-zone hybrid attacks
Allison continued:
“The more realistic vulnerabilities relate to grey-zone activity and strategic pressure,” he added. “That includes intelligence gathering, disruptive activity against undersea infrastructure, cyber interference, and wider escalation risks in a NATO-Russia confrontation.
“Shetland’s location makes it relevant to those conversations, but the UK’s defence model does not rely on permanently defending every point on the map with fixed forces, so to speak.
“It relies on surveillance, early warning, rapid response capability, and alliance reinforcement.
“So, the vulnerability is not that Shetland is defenceless in a traditional sense, but that it sits near strategic routes and infrastructure that are increasingly central to NATO planning. The risk is about disruption and pressure.”
There is currently no strong requirement or signal, Allison continued, that the UK intends to permanently station troops or warships in Shetland.
“The modern approach to defence posture is based on deployable capability and rapid reinforcement (such as the P-8 Poseidon aircraft based at RAF Lossiemouth) rather than permanent garrisons in specific locations,” Allison said.
“The Royal Navy already operates routinely in northern waters, and the RAF maritime patrol aircraft provide a significant surveillance presence without requiring basing on the islands themselves.
“What is more plausible than a permanent deployment is a gradual increase in activity. That could mean more frequent exercises, increased patrol patterns, temporary deployments during periods of heightened tension, and investment in surveillance or sensor infrastructure.
“If change comes, it is more likely to appear first through increased ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) activity, exercises and resilience planning than through the permanent stationing of major forces on the islands.”
This article was republished in cooperation with Shetland News.
A version of this article first appeared on 12 February by Hans J Marter in the Shetland News.
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