In analysing the results of the Holyrood elections, the media is focusing considerable attention on the rise of Reform UK. This is understandable as it is a fascinating story of how a political party went from nowhere to being tied with Labour as the major opposition party. Furthermore, it is intriguing how a party whose roots are in English nationalism could make inroads in Scotland (and Wales for that matter).
The story the media is missing: the staying power of the SNP
There is an important story that the media is missing: the longevity and success of the SNP. Through a number of difficulties and several leadership changes, the SNP has been the largest political party at Holyrood since 2007. Just take a moment to think about the events that have happened since 2007: a global financial crisis, the first iPhone, the Brexit vote, the rise of Donald Trump in the USA, a global pandemic, a Russian invasion of Ukraine and war in the Middle East from Gaza to Tehran. It is true that the SNP vote share has gone up and down and that in this 2026 election their number of members in the Scottish Parliament went from 64 to 58, seven seats short of the 65 needed for a majority. Nonetheless, the fact remains that the SNP has come out on top for five consecutive general elections. This is an impressive achievement any way you look at it.
Contrast with Westminster
The SNP’s record of stability stands in contrast with the political scene in Westminster. Since 2007, we have seen Labour led governments under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown followed by Conservative governments under David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak followed by Labour under Keir Starmer. The SNP leadership has fluctuated over the years, but when compared with Westminster it looks amazingly stable.
Brexit
One of the many developments that the SNP has weathered is the Brexit vote. This is an event that continues to reverberate through the years. The SNP played a significant role in the “Remain Campaign” and helped to deliver a decisive vote (62%) in favour of Great Britain remaining part of the European Union (EU). While the UK wide vote was not what the SNP had hoped for, the party certainly delivered on its commitment.
The Irish comparison
One of the interesting trends in European politics is the shattering of Fianna Fáil’s dominance of Irish politics. Fianna Fáil had controlled Irish politics for 80 years. This was shattered in response to the government’s handling of the financial crisis. As the Wall Street Journal reported at the time:
“Irish voters have decisively rejected the political party most closely associated with the rise and fall of the Celtic Tiger economy, but have largely accepted an austerity program intended to repair the government’s tattered finances.”
Fianna Fáil returned to government in 2020 as part of a coalition. Its altered fortunes stand in stark contrast to SNP’s continued dominance.
What lies behind the SNP’s success?
So, why has the SNP’s dominance at Holyrood continued? There might not be a clear answer here. However, there are interesting possibilities. The first thing that comes to mind is the lack of competition from either the Labour or Conservative parties. Clearly, voters across Scotland do not see Labour or Conservative parties as addressing their concerns. What may well be driving the SNP’s support through the years is a sense that the party puts Scotland at the heart of its concerns. Even voters who are not 100% behind independence may be backing the SNP because they see it as their best advocate.
More from Martin Burns
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