Polling released by the Pew Research Center shows that fully 60% of Americans (up from 53% last year) have an unfavourable view of Israel. The Pew polling was conducted from 23 to 30 March.
Like with so many things in America today, views of Israel have polarised, with Democrats being more critical than Republicans. Fully 80% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Israel, while 41% of Republicans are critical. This partisan divide on support for Israel is something entirely new in American politics.
In addition to the partisan divide, there is an even more important age divide. Republicans under 50 have a much more unfavourable view of Israel (57%) than those aged 50 and over (24%). The data in the Pew research shows that older Republicans are the main demographic group that has a favourable impression of Israel.
Israel’s declining favourability with Americans can be attributed to their views of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Pew points out that “Around six-in-ten Americans (59%) have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to do the right thing regarding world affairs. This is up 7 points since last year and nearly 20 points since 2023”. As was the case with perceptions of Israel, older Republican voters (58% confidence to do right thing) are the most supportive of Netanyahu.
What should we expect next?
It is understandably hard to imagine American politics without Trump. However, if we can manage to look to a post-Trump America, any new American president is going to be faced with a different political reality: there is no longer a broad consensus in America supporting Israel. None of this is to suggest that American foreign policy will shift sharply against Israel. There is a lot of evidence in the Pew research to suggest that America’s feelings about Israel are a reaction against Prime Minister Netanyahu.
What are the implications of the Pew research for American politics? The first and foremost conclusion is that the strong bipartisan support for Israel which existed for decades is gone and it is unlikely that it will return anytime soon. It certainly will not return if Netanyahu is in power. American distrust of Israel is certainly resonating with Democrats – particularly younger Democrats.
The evidence here strongly suggests that America’s relationship with Israel will be a major issue not only in the 2026 midterm elections but in the 2028 presidential elections as well. Once again, this is something that has never happened before. Potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidates will need to have a well-thought-out position on what they see as America’s relationship with Israel. As Republicans are far more supportive of Israel, we are likely to see little debate on this issue among those seeking to replace Trump.
Netanyahu may think his war in Gaza has advanced Israel’s national interests. I would suggest what Netanyahu has really done is to jeopardise long-standing American support for Israel. This is probably the biggest strategic loss for Israel in its history.
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