In discussing the stunning events of 3 January 2025, it is helpful to examine what has happened so far. The New York Times summarized the day’s events as of 3p.m. US Eastern time as:
The United States military captured the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, in a lightning strike on Caracas early Saturday morning and was transporting him to New York to face criminal charges, the stunning culmination of a month’s long campaign by President Trump and his aides to oust the authoritarian leader. Hours later, Mr. Trump said at a news conference the United States would “run” the country until a proper transition of power could be arranged, raising the prospect of an open-ended commitment. He offered few details, and it was not clear whether he meant U.S. forces would occupy the country, although he said he was not afraid of “boots on the ground”.
Many in the US national security community had been anticipating some sort of enhanced military action against Venezuela. Even something personally directed at Maduro was not off the radar screen of those who follow the issue closely. What was not expected was the Trump would proclaim that the US would occupy and that he would be so open about the motivation behind the US action: oil.
In Trump’s rambling, even by his standards, either Trump or members of his national security team mentioned the word oil 27 times. So, if you do the match, oil was mentioned on an average of every two and a half minutes.
American public does not support military action against Venezuela
Polling conducted by The Economist/YouGov in late December found that fully 60% of Americans oppose the US using military force to invade Venezuela. A 43% plurality strongly oppose its use. Significantly, 43% of those who voted for Trump in 2024 and 85% of Democrats oppose the use of military force in Venezuela. While a plurality of Republicans support Trump’s action (43%). Just under two out of three independent voters (63%) are opposed to the US using military force to invade Venezuela.
Military action needs Congressional approval
According to The Economist/YouGov data, a whopping 74% believe President Trump should first seek US Congressional approval before using military force in Venezuela. Furthermore, 59% of Trump 2024 voters support this approach. Democrats overwhelmingly (93%) agree, while just under three-quarters (74%) of Independents also believe Trump should seek Congressional approval. A significant majority of Republicans (58%) share this view. Trump 2024 voters strongly favour congressional authorisation for any military action in Venezuela, with 59% expressing this sentiment.
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Is the US Congress irrelevant?
During the Trump press conference, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Congress had not been consulted on the military action in Venezuela because of the sensitive nature of the operation. Trump expanded on this by saying that they had not consulted with Congress because they have a tendency to “leak”.
It is essential to step back and remember that the US Constitution clearly gives Congress the sole power to declare war. The authors of the Constitution were quite aware of how European monarchs could drag their countries into costly wars and they wanted the United States of America to avoid the same fate.
While Congress did not declare war on Iraq, there was a congressional vote on the topic. In addition, US actions in Vietnam were sanctioned by legislation – the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution.
Trump’s refusal to even consult with Congress is absolutely unprecedented.
Will Congress assert its role?
To date, Congress has done little to check Donald Trump’s abuse of executive power. Will this change in response to Venezuela? The answer here is a definite maybe. The Senate is scheduled to vote next week on a bipartisan war powers resolution to stop President Trump from continuing military against Venezuela. The measure is sponsored by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), Senator Tim Kaine (D-Virgina), Senator Rand Paul(R-Kentucky) and Senator Adam Schif (D-California).
To pass, the Senate War Powers Resolution only needs a majority. All Democratic senators are expected to vote in favour as is Republican Senator Rand Paul. Moderate Republican senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowsi of Alaska could possibly support the resolution.
While the Senate passage of a War Powers Resolution would not immediately stop the war in Venezuela, it would be a step on the road to a saner US foreign policy.
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