Opponents of Scottish Independence have enacted their strategy to weaken support and foster mistrust in the SNP by both questioning their ability to govern effectively and challenging devolved powers. Have the SNP learned the lessons of the ring?
Driving with no rear-view mirror
The SNP stand accused of believing their own hype – a self-confidence that has led to a breakdown in both support and a coherent path forward for the independence movement. I write more about that here. They are like a broken-down vehicle stranded in a layby, watching the world zoom past. While the UK Government commands a fleet of political vehicles, the SNP’s solitary bus – once emblazoned with Nicola Sturgeon’s image – has struggled to keep up. The bus has since been repainted, and new(ish) leader John Swinney, as both driver and mechanic, is trying to restart the engine. Yet, with limited resources compared to the UK Government’s nationwide franchise, the SNP is both a lone garage and its own salesroom.
The wheels on the bus
The most efficient buses – even when running well and on time – rarely pass cars on the political motorway. Unless of course, circumstances allow for the size and strength of the bus to trundle to the front so that it reaches its destination. In the case of the SNP that would result in Independence or a substantial reshaping of the devolution settlement. Boris Johnson’s Brexit bus demonstrated that the improbable can happen. In any case, the journey began long ago and the SNP or some other manifestation of the Independence movement will always be on the road.
Letting the air out of the tyres
Had the SNP employed a more strategic approach, the UK Government might have been pressured into opening talks about Scotland’s future. Instead, the Unionist parties – Conservatives, Labour, and Lib Dems – have bobbed and weaved more effectively since the 2014 referendum. Recognising that “power devolved is power lost”, Unionists have worked to erode the image of the SNP and curtail the powers of the Scottish Parliament. Using both the UK framework and the particularity of the Scottish context, they have effectively degraded the SNPs power, both real and imagined. Cornered and constrained, the SNP have struggled to land significant punches.
The better fighter
Unionists have made it clear they want no referendum rematch (why go in the ring if you can hold aloft the belt until forced to put it up for grabs). The political boxing match since 2014 has seen Unionist parties, led by a bruiser of a Conservative Party, scoring most of the points. From local authority power-sharing deals to Supreme Court rulings, the blows have been relentless. Meanwhile, the SNP, bloated on past successes, have appeared like a one-punch fighter repeatedly trying to land their knockout blow – only to fail and fall to the floor as their swing misses by a mile. Then getting up and trying the same thing again. A poor strategy and one easily dealt with by their opponents.
Down but not quite out
The Scottish Labour Party, ably supported by their Conservative and Lib Dem counterparts, has exploited the SNP’s missteps. From controversies over gender recognition to delayed infrastructure projects and flatlining education statistics, the SNP have taken a beating. Drug deaths remain high, homelessness persists, and ministerial scandals have damaged their reputation as an honest fighter. The body blows have been relentless. Media coverage – a partisan crowd – has amplified their struggles. The pressure ultimately led to the departure of their prize-fighter Nicola Sturgeon, leaving the SNP on the ropes looking dazed and divided.
A (not so) new fighter in town
Anas Sarwar, Scottish Labour’s latest show fighter, has benefited from the SNP’s lack of strategy and focus. Channelling an apparent Muhammed Ali-like confidence, he’s proclaimed himself the next First Minister. Meanwhile, in Westminster the safe and underwhelming journeyman that is Kier Starmer managed to gain the UK title as the Conservatives have punched themselves drunk and taken one too many bribes for even their most loyal of supporters to countenance. Sir Starmer is now king of the ring and his tactics involve showing Scotland a semblance of care – offering just enough to shift support while hoping the SNP continue to falter. Anas may even have started to believe his own hype.
Getting in shape
The SNP changed fighter, bringing in their own safe and previously underwhelming star John Swinney (he’s previously been SNP leader). Though not a bold choice, Swinney has stabilised the team and implemented a new training regime. By shelving independence as an immediate priority, the SNP are refocusing on governance. Time to get in shape is the new message. Early results include the launch of drug consumption rooms, progress on delayed infrastructure projects, and a well-received budget that outmanoeuvred Labour as in the glory days of the past. The SNP are back in the ring, aiming to win rounds ahead of the 2026 elections.
A gruelling rematch
After a decade of tumult – referendums, elections, a pandemic, austerity, and global crises – it’s maybe no wonder the SNP were somewhat punch-drunk, and a change was needed. Swinney may not be a rising star full of potential for the masses to get behind, but he is a canny and seasoned performer who has it in him to box clever. He can get the SNP off the ropes, benefit from the failings of his opponents and win one last fight at the next elections. This approach might set the stage for a younger generation to take up the fight. Contenders like Stephen Flynn and Kate Forbes are waiting in the wings. The prize is still there for the taking.
Rising through the ranks
The SNP face a dual challenge: fighting on two fronts against Unionist opponents at both Westminster and Holyrood. However, this dynamic also hinders Anas Sarwar, whose power is limited by the UK Labour Party’s centralised control. The Scottish Labour leader may be able to dance around the ring jabbing at the SNP and scoring some points, even to the extent that he wins a few rounds in succession and thereby looking like a potential champion. It’s just that the UK Labour party retain all the big hits. Be it tax, the two-child benefit cap, Gaza, drug policy, or any other matter that the UK team decide upon, his limitations become apparent. You can have the shiniest pair of shorts you like and the most dazzling dressing gown but once you get in the ring you better have what it takes, or you’ll eventually be found out.
A false prophet
Anas Sarwar is no champion of the left in Scotland, he is and always will box on the undercard – destined to fight with one hand tied behind his back. He’ll labour away valiantly – just as I have done with the boxing analogy in this article – but I posit he will fail to win at Holyrood come May next year. He has a losers reach because nothing he can say or do will change the fact that it is the UK Labour party who dictate policy. Anyone who knows the sport knows he is not what he proclaims and whilst he may make a show at the weigh-in he’ll come undone as the match goes on. He doesn’t have the firepower to land the knockout blow. The only way he will win is if the SNP get dragged into a war of attrition and die a death of a thousand cuts. They should be too wise for that given their experience. Though, we should never say never, there is no accounting for stupidity.
The show must go on
The political match continues, and it is all to play for. New challenger The Reform Party are predicted to gain in Scotland. For the SNP, rebuilding public trust hinges on effective governance. Bread-and-butter issues – addressing cost-of-living concerns, improving public services, and restoring credibility – must take precedence over lofty promises of independence. People’s daily lives are most important at this time of budgetary constraints and geopolitical uncertainty, and they must prove themselves again in this respect. If the SNP can become a lean, efficient political machine, and take any opportunity the wider UK and geopolitical context gives, they might earn another shot at the top prize. Until then, the fight goes on.
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