The SNP led by Nicola Sturgeon have messed up a huge opportunity for the independence movement to participate in a second referendum for Scottish Independence, yet no one accepts responsibility. Hubris and political naivety alongside failure to see through a programme of government has led to a major loss of power.
Within the UK there have been some major political and societal upheavals that could have garnered the necessary support for such an event yet have not. Support for a second referendum is far from high enough and the blame lies squarely with that Nicola-led era. The reasons for this are many and we will explore some of them below. It remains to be seen if the Scottish independence movement can reach such heights again.
The importance of voters
After every major political event, we can utter the same phrase, “mistakes have been made”. This can translate to mean that voters’ hopes are dashed by the hubris or hopelessness of politicians. Take the recent collapse of support at Westminster for the SNP. I have read of ‘surprise’ at the number of MPs ousted and wonder why. Those that vote, do so based on what they see before them. It is clear, following the last decade, that only Labour (by default of being the opposition) offers the possibility of change; the SNP have lost too many games in all competitions. Supporters have not only stopped singing their tunes, but many have also decided to avoid backing them altogether. And boy, you do need those fair-weather fans if you are to succeed in something as big as Scottish Independence. Although to be fair to those MPs who sat in the stands in London, most of the blame for their demise lies at the door of Scottish MSPs and one in particular – Nicola Sturgeon.
SNP behind closed doors
Let’s rewind the clock to when she inherited the manager’s job: the massive conferences, the total support, the growing fanbase, and the almost universal respect (grudging in some quarters) of both the media and opposition politicians. Then there were the helicopters, the tweets, and the proclamations on world affairs. Hers was a world of real opportunity, there are few who enter into power with such a force of support carrying them forward. However, behind the scenes, any questions as to how to translate such support into tangible achievements hit a brick wall. Support or subjugation was the order of the day. If you give yourself no room to manoeuvre, then you’ve actually backed yourself into a corner.
The day job
The SNP failure to deliver on public projects such as the dualling of the A9, ferry construction, and a myriad of other necessary improvements for people’s lives was a massive own goal. These were opportunities, and I posit, relatively easy wins for a seasoned government. If they’d done what a government is supposed to do, it would have given those who can and do change their mind with regards to their voting intentions, that sense of stability and surety needed for confidence building. This is an absolute must if any thought of constitutional change is to be seriously considered, especially in a world of uncertainty and constant upheaval. Instead, the SNP – led by Nicola Sturgeon – handed out sticks for an unforgiving press to beat them with. Not to mention the ammunition this supplied opposition parties to commence a war of attrition on the idea that the SNP was a competent government. Death by a thousand self-inflicted cuts.
These are not the only failures that matter. For example, the gender reform act was handled so clumsily that everything else was drowned out. So, even positive developments and good work went unremarked. On this issue, they mishandled the whole thing and therefore allowed the culture war proponents to cause division where common sense could have prevailed. They continued to publicly shut down any discussion and the wound lay open to fester in a cesspit of social media amplified by partisan media looking to drive home the message of SNP incompetence.
A similar example is the bottle return scheme. This debacle spelt out to the public that things were seriously bad. If you can’t organise sorting out some rubbish, how on earth can you run the country’s economy without messing it up? ‘Fowks’ don’t go for that. The fact that it was shot down so quickly by the UK Government gave a real lesson on where power lies. All the proclamations in the world won’t change the fact that Scotland has little power. Not such a bad thing if your argument is it needs more to do better. Thing is, you have to do better with what you have as fowks won’t vote for you to make a hash of things like the entire economy if you can’t do better in other areas first.
Referendum drumbeat
This is all very cyclical and sad. History is littered with politicians who fail to make the most of the opportunities afforded to them. No surprises there. Yet, for me at least – the biggest failure of Nicola Sturgeon and her coterie relates to the constitutional question. The way she handled this opportunity was astoundingly stupid. Firstly, coming out and charging straight into defeat by banging on about a second independence referendum so soon after the first was surely a marker of where thinking was at. It should have been a wake-up call. Instead, the constitutional drumbeat was ramped up and it seemed that every other day there was another declaration of intent to hold one ‘in the near future’. This was certainly the wrong approach. That drumbeat should have played out quietly in the background. Everyone knew the tune, there was no need to bang on about it. The lyric should have been, ‘when the people are ready, they will sing that song loud enough for all to hear’. Unfortunately, the referendum drumbeat drowned out all reason. Like an egotistical musician sneaking into the control room to amp up the sound of ‘their’ instrument, Nicola kept at it right up until the point people stopped listening.
SNP played the wrong tune
For if that line – that the people will tell us when – had been held, then following the most selfish, egotistical, self-serving and often incompetent conservative government for decades the choir would surely have grown and added the voices needed to prove that the numbers existed to revisit the constitutional question. If, instead of telling people when Brexit happened that a referendum was absolutely coming, Nicola Sturgeon had said that the people would tell her, after the dust had settled, maybe the electorate would have been ready in the second half of this decade. Instead, the firing of blanks continued apace to the point no one really believed there was any substance to her utterings. A follow-up album needs new material if anyone, but ardent fans are going to listen in. The SNP played the wrong tune at the wrong time and refused to jump the needle. It was agonising to listen to.
The end game
It all came crashing to the ground when the supreme court proclaimed that it is for England to decide when Scotland can ask its people to vote on its own international status as a country. Voters then knew there was absolutely no point in listening to the SNP as they were sucked into the trap of being constantly challenged in court by a Conservative Party intent on reigning in the previously free-wheeling Scottish Parliament. If SNP politicians had amplified the chaotic mess that was the Tory party in a “jeez, are you seeing what we are seeing” type of way without banging on about independence, then following Brexit, Covid, Boris, and scandal after scandal, I believe that would have convinced a significant portion of those people who decide elections, that Independence (or, at least, serious constitutional change) was a viable option. This would have made it harder for both the Supreme Court and Westminster parties to deny the request when it came. Imagine!
Back to the drawing board for the SNP party
I have watched as the most popular politician in my time has squandered an opportunity that was the envy of politicians and parties around the world. Had the SNP shut up and built support amongst the undecided and abroad, then there would have been a stronger case for a second Scottish referendum. Instead, we watched folly after folly. All of which, predictably resulted in a loss of that power to change things. And to make it worse, there was no admission of culpability or taking of responsibility. Nicola Sturgeon, as she opined on TV during the recent UK election, could have shown humility instead of hubris. Instead, we learned the empress had no clothes the whole time. Bark without bite. A destination with the wrong roadmap, and a lack of political nous. She led the party like Ally’s army, and all that remains are the most loyal troops wondering if they’ll ever qualify again for such a major political event ever again. It may be a long time before the independence movement regains such power and momentum. It could have been so very different.
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