Now that the election is over and the dust is beginning to settle, journalists are searching for narratives through which to make sense of it all. Was it about the rise of the right? Not really – most of Reform’s gains came from disaffected Conservatives, while some voters didn’t even realise that Reform is on the right. Was it about the death of the Scottish independence movement? No – polls show that support for independence remains much the same, and it’s just the SNP that has suffered, as any party might after nearly two decades of government with a population hungry for change. Is it about low turnout? Well, maybe – there are some interesting issues there. But more than anything, it’s about the rise of the Greens.
“What’s the big deal?” you might ask. The Green Party of England and Wales won one seat less than Reform, and it didn’t poll the same numbers. But Reform’s numbers came from a pre-established right-wing voting bloc. South of the border, Green votes doubled; the party won four seats and came second in another 40. The Scottish Greens saw their vote quadruple, and that despite the fact that they’ve recently been in government, where they frequently found themselves functioning as scapegoats for unpopular policies. Most significantly, while Reform and the movement it grew from has enjoyed a vast amount of press coverage – Nigel Farage alone has appeared on Question Time 36 times – Greens have had very little, and neither have they benefited from large scale corporate funding. They have had to do all the hard work by themselves.
Why the breakthrough occurred
That’s no small achievement. Over the decades, any number of smaller parties have tried and failed to make the same kind of breakthrough. There’s a reason why it was possible in this instance, however, and that’s that voters of many different political hues are crying out for change where policies affecting climate and the environment are concerned. Pre-election polling showed that 69% of people think the major parties are doing poorly when it comes to climate change, with 71% concerned about nature loss. River pollution is a still bigger concern, and one that has cut through particularly strongly in rural Conservative constituencies.
Perhaps most significantly, 79% of people make a connection between a healthy environment and economic prosperity. This shows that there is a recognition that we need to invest money now in order to reap future rewards, or at least reduce our losses as the world changes around us. There is widespread support for increased taxation of oil and gas communities and the super-rich in order to finance this. Despite this, both Labour and the Conservatives reduced their commitment to green policies ahead of the election, while the SNP attracted ire by shifting the date by which they aim to have Scotland reach Net Zero.
The growing visibility of climate change
While scientists have been calling for climate change to be treated as an urgent issue since the 1970s, it was always hard to get the masses onside because they generally didn’t have the training or inclination to read through scientific papers or process lots of data. The issues seemed rather obscure, and they easily fell for reassuring rhetoric about how nice it would be to have warmer summer days and to grow wine here (something which increasingly looks to be in jeopardy as we see signs that we could be losing the Gulf Stream).
This situation is changing, however, as the crisis reaches a point where most people can see something of it directly. They know that there’s less birdsong and that there are fewer insects around than there used to be, that there’s more unpleasantly sticky weather, that flowers and fruit are appearing out of season or not at all, that coastal towns are getting flooded. They’re scared – as well they might be – and they expect their representatives to do something about it.
If the larger parties try to write off Green successes in this election, they’ll get a shock at the next one, because these concerns are only going to grow as climate change escalates – and what’s more, actually electing a Green MP, which was long thought to be impossible or a fluke, has now been clearly marked as achievable. This is a political movement that cannot be ignored. Green issues can no longer be treated as a nice little add-on after the serious policy work is complete – they need to be at the heart of everything politicians do. Not just because nature is appealing. Not just because the future of the planet and its people matter. But because if this doesn’t happen, they won’t keep their jobs.
The Green political movement in Scotland, and across much of Europe, has been advantaged by Proportional Representation. When it still manages to happen despite the challenges posed by the first past the post electoral system, it really is time to sit up and listen. What has happened in this election marks a huge shift in voter behaviour. Keir Starmer and his government need to act accordingly.
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