The SNP has controlled Scotland’s devolved legislature since 2007 as both minority and majority governments. Now after a most turbulent year enter John Swinney, a centre-left, consensus politician, a nationally respected figure with a core of steel.
John Swinney has put himself forward to lead the SNP and to be Scotland’s seventh First Minister. Many in the SNP and beyond will breathe a huge sigh of relief. Kate Forbes, a very capable but more divisive figure, has thrown her support behind Swinney. It looks as though the SNP has done the sensible thing. The SNP is expected to confirm his leadership without a contest next Monday and become first minister two days later.
Swinney said,
“I could have stood back and hoped others would sort things out. But I care too much about the future of Scotland and the Scottish National Party to walk on by. Just as we must fight against the polarisation of our politics, we cannot allow the SNP to be polarised.”
John Swinney has been around for a long time. He joined the SNP in 1979 aged 15. He has a MA in Politics from Edinburgh University and extensive cabinet experience as Deputy First Minister to Nicola Sturgeon (2014-2023). He led the party briefly in 2002-4.
He will have to make use of his unifying instincts given the challenges he faces after a turbulent time for the SNP and the Scottish Government. His government and party face immediate challenges in Scotland and from Westminster.
What issues does Swinney face?
Top of the list is the legacy of past First Ministers in the shape of Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond. Both have apparently warned to ‘stop meddling’ in the race to succeed Humza Yousaf, who quit as SNP leader and First Minister on Monday 29 April after his attempt to ditch the Greens from his coalition government backfired spectacularly.
Kate Forbes has now held talks with Swinney, and it looks like she will return to the Cabinet table with considerable responsibility in the new government. Forbes narrowly missed out on the top job last year but revealed that had she been an MSP at the time she would have voted against gay marriage, due to her religious beliefs as a member of the Free Church of Scotland. Such views, strongly held by members of this church, are a minority opinion in modern Scotland. Many outside of this Church and the country were and are shocked that this thinking still exists.
It remains to be seen what accommodation will be made with the Scottish Greens, who in effect brought down Humza Yousaf in revenge for their being thrown out of the government last week. John Swinney is very aware that ditching the Greens does not stop the Climate Crisis nor the need to rapidly decarbonise the Scottish economy. This should be a priority for the progressive wing of the SNP. The Scottish economy needs political leadership committed to a more sustainable future than that being offered in Westminster.
Independence, the SNP’s greatest challenge
The SNP desire for IndyRef2 has been denied by UK Conservatives and Labour alike. The SNP- led Scottish Government were denied another referendum by the UK’s Supreme Court. John Swinney now has the job of moving the Independence argument forward against the outright refusal of the UK government of either Conservative or Labour. With 47% of Scots saying they want Independence in April 2024 in a most recent poll (Statista) the whole question of Scotland’s future in the UK and Europe remains unresolved. The Brexit referendum of 2016 has left many in the country feeling cheated and poorer as a result of Cameron’s perceived betrayal during this campaign (Vote Remain – Stay in Europe).
The Labour Party is currently riding high in the polls. Britain must hold a general election by the end of January 2025 at the latest. On April 28 the Economist had Labour at 44% and the Conservatives at 23%. Early local elections results from England and Wales indicate that the polls have it largely right. A resurgent Labour Party with an expected huge majority thanks to a First Past the Post (FPTP) voting system designed in the nineteenth century, is likely to give Edinburgh demands for another independence referendum short shrift. Where does that leave John Swinney and the SNP?
These are the likely political challenges facing Scotland and the Scottish people over the next five years.
Where lies the hope?
Swinney announced his candidature emphatically, ruling out that he was some kind of interim stop gap. He wants to play his part to the full and this provides some hope that he will take the fight for a better, more sustainable and equitable future to the Scottish electorate and to Westminster.
We need to restore hope that things can and will get better. We need more investment in our house building programme. We need access to cheaper electricity from Scottish renewable sources. We need to decarbonise our energy, transport and farming sectors. Scotland’s Health Service and Schools need improving.
The challenges are huge. John Swinney talked about not standing back and leaving it to others. This speaks volumes about the man, his integrity and his ability to step up to the mark when the occasion arises. Swinney faces a huge task in the SNP and in government.
He and Scotland have no time to lose.
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