Understanding fast-moving developments in international relations is inherent to finding an answer. Everything needs to be examined, including the role of right-wing parties in our midst.
The past week has been for many a week, which left numerous feeling overwhelmed. The Trump administration’s pace and chaos in foreign relations have upended the transatlantic alliance – an alliance that has provided stability and prosperity for much of the Western world for the past eighty years. This status quo is no longer. The democratic world needs to find answers and unity fast. By understanding the threat, we can endeavour to find an answer.
America’s alignment with autocrats
After overcoming the pervading feeling of overwhelming, a pattern emerges that perhaps isn’t so hard to comprehend. The world has a group of autocrats: Russia, China, North Korea, and now new to the club, an America that is bidding to join.
Yes, that feels odd and contrary to the America we thought we knew, but this is Trump’s America, which is rejecting all known norms both at home and abroad. His support base is both the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement paired with the Silicon Valley oligarchy. The two have little in common, albeit the support of the self-claiming ‘dealmaker’ Trump and their utter disdain for liberal values.
The MAGA base, which has a strong ultra-conservative ultranationalist Christian following, and the tech bros see liberal values as threatening and have a common desire to abolish them. This is where the overlap is with other autocratic regimes. Democracy and individual freedom are the nemesis to their authoritarian rule and are conceived as a threat while being ridiculed as weak and ineffective. Inherently, democracies through the division of power are more vulnerable to attack than autocracies. These weaknesses have been identified and are being used against us, whether this is hybrid warfare or election interference.
Hybrid warfare
The habitual cutting of cables in the Baltic Sea by vessels linked to Chinese flag or Russian has gained remarkable frequency in the past months. The Nordic states have taken a more robust approach and have boarded such ships and increased patrols in the vicinity. What is surprising is that hybrid warfare is somehow not taken as seriously as military warfare, yet the agenda is the same – it is to undermine our societies through attack and disruption causing considerable costs. Western countries are under attack, and we need to call it by its name – we are in the fledgling stages that have all the conditions to make a hot war – a real war costing lives and causing misery. European citizens need to know the threats they face, and it is up to our politicians to be honest and frank about the situation. By naming and knowing the enemy, you are better capable of resisting it.
Election interference and support of far-right parties
As is hybrid warfare a relatively common phenomenon in recent times, so is electoral interference – some obvious some subtle.
JD Vance did his utmost and offered a less subtle version to support the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) at his speech at the Munich Security Conference. He also met Alice Weidel, the party’s leader. He was countered by Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Germany would not allow interference into its domestic affairs. This sounds applaudable, but it is a weak answer considering Elon Musk has openly endorsed the AfD as do donations to the party whose origins are best described as ‘murky’. Elon Musk did an interview with her earlier this year and was a virtual speaker at the party’s conference in January.
In the UK, Musk is an open supporter of Reform, if not so much a fan of Nigel Farage. This American offensive support of far-right parties is a communality they have with Russia. It is their common ground and shared crusade to dismantle democracy and weaken Western societies. This is a relatively new development that America indulges in the support of far-right European parties. Russia has long identified this route to destabilise our democracies and has happily funded Marie Le Pen’s party, the Austrian FPÖ and indeed is a known supporting disruptor in the Brexit vote.
The Russian Report
This report clearly outlined the level of Russian interference in the leadup to the Brexit election and yet did not receive the public attention that it deserved, with the Conservative government at the time most reluctant to examine the results. The extent of Russian money and investments in the UK is no secret, and the political aversion to addressing these issues is highly negligent and a massive disservice to democracy.
Such dealings are in essence a ‘sell-out’ of democracy, however sweet the short-term rewards were. The continuing undermining of European democracies now seems to have reached a head, and the initiators appear to have found a new strong ally in America – a country that no longer wants to be the defender of the ‘Free World’ but is happier to align its interests with rogue states and ‘strike a deal’. The bitterness being that America seems to be taking delight in throwing its former allies and rule and order under the bus. Donald Trump’s bizarre telephone call with Putin this week without informing Ukraine or other allies is a diplomatic affront before we even get into the content of the talks.
Trump is not a dealmaker – he is an audience-seeking narcissist
Those close to Trump certify his love of attention, and we need to understand him psychologically more than in terms of the previous transatlantic relationship. His appetite for headlines could be one explanation for his call to Putin, a man he has continued to admire for many years. The incredulity with which this call was received is dismissed in some quarters as an obvious continuation of what Trump said he would do. This is missing the point that Trump made unnecessary concessions to Putin without leaving any room for leverage. This was not his self-proclaimed ability to perfect the “art of the deal”, but capitulation for no obvious reason.
Or was it deliberate alignment with a regime that equally wants to destroy Western democracies? The exclusion of Europe in the ‘peace talks’ is symbolic of the US’s opinion of these countries and a deliberate move to diminish their role. The new world order could be more a division of ‘interest zones’ between autocracies where diplomatic discourse has no place.
Trump’s actions, coordinated or not, are an invitation to further imperialistic land grabs and the abolishment of a rules-based order. China will be very attentive to the dynamic unfolding geopolitical situation.
Europe is now scrambling to find answers – how will the UK position itself?
Macron has called a pan-European meeting tomorrow in Paris. Europe has the financial resources to provide for its own security. What it doesn’t have is political leadership and unity. I read that the former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis left the Munich Security Conference with a “low mood” and the hope that a leader with “Churchill’s resolve” will emerge. I have no doubt that Macron is a leader who would relish the task, and he must feel emboldened that Zelensky called for a European army, which equates to what he called for last year.
Keir Starmer has been invited to this meeting, and there are fears within Europe that the UK will fence-sit as it tries to straddle its geopolitical exposure as well as maintain the “special relationship” with the US. Whether the Trump administration acknowledges the existence of any “special relationship” can be doubted considering Musk’s attack on the Labour Party and its leader in recent months. What is not entirely unlikely and a fear amongst Europeans, is that the US administration tries to weaken the European resolve by making a ‘deal’ with the UK.
Starmer needs to address the reality that any past relationship, however mythical this might be, is unlikely to be upheld by an increasingly unreliable if not absent America ally. In a clever political move, he could re-embrace Europe as a strategic and economic partner. He could re-examine the Russian report. When this is completely evaluated, he could question the legitimacy of the Brexit vote due to the presence of foreign interference, however embarrassing this might be for those involved. This could then lead to an enquiry into the continued presence of foreign party donorship and who exactly funds Reform. Many birds with one stone Keir!
War is psychology
War is in so many respects a psychological game, and it is important to understand what drives both Putin and Trump. Zelensky seems to understand while some European leaders are slowly adjusting to the emerging geopolitical order. He has refrained from signing the rare mineral contract with Trump, who wanted him to already give away 50% of the minerals in lieu of American war funding to date.
We as Western societies need to understand who our enemies are and what is at stake. This does not mean we need to be fatalistic, but we need to discover our agency and appreciate the weaknesses of those who threaten us. America is becoming a self-destructing, if not imploding society. As Europeans, we need to define our interests and not depend on others who may revise their position.
Zones of Influence
Crises are also opportunities, and if Europe becomes more independent and responsible for its own security, we are safer in the long run and more autonomous. Maybe this puts us in a position to strike a “deal” with Donald. We need to rearm, and America remains the world’s largest arms producer. Welcome to the new world of “zones of economic influence” and “transactionalism”.
It is not the world we have known, but it is the world we need to face. How China will position itself in this world without American hegemony will be a question we will also need to answer – at best as a united Europe with the United Kingdom.
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