According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, global arms spending rose by 9.4% last year, the sharpest rise since the Cold War era. Five nations lead the league table, the USA, China, Russia, Germany and India. They accounted for 60% of global military investment. In cash terms that’s $1,635 billion. Every region of the world is increasing arms expenditure. Spending on military personnel and weaponry is set on an upward trajectory for at least the next ten years.
The reasons are obvious. China seeks to cement its place as the Asia/Pacific superpower. India wants to be the Alpha player on the sub-continent. Putin’s drive to create ‘greater Russia’ is, if anything, accelerating. Donald Trump is substituting Pax Americana for ‘America first’, thus questioning the 80-year military partnership that saw the USA lead NATO and be democracy’s shield across the globe. Trump believes America can only be great again if it shows it can flex its muscles as the world’s strongest political, economic and military power. Allies are not necessarily required.
Russia’s poking of the resolve of European states and Trump’s hesitancy to be 100% committed to NATO are witnessing bigger defence budgets across Europe. In the UK, the Starmer government’s defence allocation is up by close to 2.5%, to almost £60 bn a year.
More combustible
Tensions are on the rise globally. The dialogue between great nations is less accommodating and more combustible than it so recently was. Trump’s tariff wars have shifted the world’s axis. And emerging from the new America is a form of Christian fundamentalism that’s staking a claim to be the world’s moral arbiter. It is laying down a challenge to Islam and secularism.
We are in a 21st century arms race that’s also about culture, religion, systems of government and how the planet organises itself. Militarism, coupled to the global rise in nationalism and authoritarianism, and the decline in the status and influence of the post-WW2 institutions of rules-based international order, presents us with a potentially catastrophic international relations environment. In late September, in his rambling speech to the UN General Assembly, Donald Trump questioned the very existence of the UN.
Trump’s foreign policy approach has seen China, Russia and India lead a new grouping that goes by the name of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Seen alongside the BRICS movement, ten nations led by Brazil, Russia, India and China, we see the leaching away of the power and influence of the Western democracies and new spheres of influence emerge.
Risking petulant retaliation
Europe, including the UK, can no longer rely on the USA. One of the great strengths of what was the Special Relationship between Britain and the US was that British prime ministers could speak to American presidents as a firm but not uncritical friend. Even the mildest criticism of America’s foreign policies under Donald Trump risks petulant retaliation by the American leader.
Currently, Europe, including the UK, are simply observers in this new global complexity. Trump has shocked the West and the world. Most critically, he has fractured eight decades of certainty for Europe. Our best, richest and most trusted friend has picked up the ball and is playing a solo game on a pitch that says stars and stripes only.
As things stand, we in the UK and Europe (we are all Europeans) are not even in the game. We are scrambling to keep Trump appeased. He has been allowed to destabilise the world, fracture alliances, weaken the world’s human health defences and kill off American commitment to fight global warming. He uses language that insults and belittles other nations. The traditions, mechanisms and institutions designed to keep the world from war and foster the conditions for peace, security and prosperity have been marginalised and diminished.
This is a dangerous time. If you want proof, look to the 25th September statement from Russia’s Ambassador to France. Alexey Meshkov said that if a Russian military aircraft were brought down inside Western airspace that would be considered an act of war. Russian planes have frequently entered allied skies in recent months. The Ambassador’s statement amounts to an ‘I dare you’ threat. Western intelligence sources say Russia may train Chinese pilots.
Urgency to reduce global tensions
It is becoming increasingly urgent that global tensions are reduced. But how is this to be done? The West is leaderless and rudderless. We have too much to lose to allow such a situation to continue. If an individual cannot be found who has the qualities needed (and such people are extremely rare), then we must look to creating the circumstances that can shift the world’s mood from fear and suspicion and nervous fingers on triggers towards an atmosphere that reduces the temperature of international affairs.
Perhaps such an initiative is best led by a small nation, one that is no military or economic threat to the great powers. Perhaps an Ireland or a Denmark or a Malta could offer to host a summit charged with mapping routes towards revitalising global support for the UN or unifying the democracies of Europe to deliver a declaration reaffirming Europe’s commitment to peace. A statement of what European civilisation stands for, so that its people know what they might be asked to defend. So that the world knows where Europe stands and that it is a beacon for freedom. That was once America’s job, but it has abdicated the role. We must look to ourselves.
First published in The Scotsman on 5th October 2025
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