News headlines seem to be getting painfully repetitive. Last week’s proposed euphemistically named Russian/US 28-point “peace plan” seemed a repeat rinse of what we were dished at the Alaskan peace summit in August this year – all performative, albeit it poor theatrics, and no genuine endeavours by Russia or the US to devise a fair and lasting peace plan which would alleviate the unimaginable suffering that Ukraine has courageously withstood for almost four years. Indeed, it is impossible to know who dictated what, but from the syntax and the overall message, it seems most likely that Russia was the architect and Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy, the amenable accomplice.
I often hear, ‘It doesn’t surprise me’ that the US is pushing Russian propaganda. This comment seems to be coming ever more prevalent when reflecting upon the many political and social challenges we collectively face.
“I wouldn’t be surprised…”
The following cases which are listed all fall easily under this comment. The more poignant question should be, not whether these events are at all surprising but how we react to them. This isn’t a defence strategy or a pathway to accountability – it is self-congratulatory delusion. We need to discover our agency if we are to prevent the often deeply damaging consequences that these ‘unsurprising’ events bestow upon us and pushback against the indifference with which they are treated.
Future generations will not ask us whether we were ‘surprised’, they will ask us what we undertook. The sense of ‘nothing new’ and the encouragement of outrage on social media arguably inhibits our agency beyond keyboard wars and falling into a sense of complacent inevitability. It’s a toxic and inert position that enables enemies of democracies and free societies to sow division and dissolve our resolve.
X and the foreign bots
“I’m not surprised”; this answer seems to have general applicability regardless of which precarious situation is being presented. Whether it is the exposure of bot troll farms that were visible, albeit briefly on Musk’s X, which added an extra feature citing the various geographic locations of its user accounts. It was a short-lived feature which was hastily removed as the locations shown underscored the very rigged nature that most of us have come to assume to be highly probable behind his algorithm driven propaganda machine.
Accounts which launched racist, antisemitic and far-right talking points were seen to be located in the Middle East and were not MAGA or America First devotees as they pertained. It is illustrative of how easy foreign interference and agendas are able to infiltrate our social media space and dominate the narrative with divisive and vicious vitriol. Certain foreign anti-democratic countries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea (also known as CRINKS), have an interest in sowing division and dissonance amongst western societies as it strengthens their position. Divide and conquer is not a new strategy of war – it is not surprising, but what are we as a collective going to do about it?
Boris Johnson’s inept handling of COVID
Last week’s UK COVID inquiry report soberingly stated that Boris Johnson and his government’s handling of the crisis, which included a cavalier late entrance into the March 2020 lockdown, was responsible for approximately 23,000 unnecessary deaths. It was a profound example of unsurprisingly bad governance. Other outrageous behaviour also included ‘Partygate’ which triggered an investigation into the Johnson’s misleading of parliament. The ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme was also the epitome of catastrophic governing. Yet, these events are glaringly devoid of any personal responsibility or accountability being taken by those in charge.
That Boris Johnson had worryingly poor personal character credentials for high office indeed might not surprise many. The question should be not whether this is surprising, but why was he elected to such an office which demands robust responsibility, and why has the man not been held accountable for gross misconduct when in office?
The apparent inevitability of the Far Right
The mainstream media in the UK has repeatedly been a vocal voice of propelling Reform to unavoidable success. An article this week from Yorkshire Bylines examines this phenomenon and questions the media’s projection of Reform’s ‘inevitable success’ when considering Reform’s “recent trajectory of underperformance”. They failed at the Caerphilly by-election and countless resignations of Reform councillors across the country are a stark contrast to some media claims that their victory is inevitable. We wonder why we are being fed the ‘Farage Mirage’ by so many media outlets? Why is it that the media wants to convince the electorate of Reform’s apparent impending outright success? Perhaps when we examine who owns these media and social media outlets, whether it be Rupert Murdoch or the tech billionaires, we begin to understand the motivation.
Similarly, in other European countries the purported inevitable success of far-right candidates has not come to bear. The far-right Geert Wilders in Holland suffered a strong loss to the centrists in this year’s general election. In Romania, the Liberal presidential candidate Nicusor Dan beat the right-wing nationalist and Russian supported George Simion.
In the US, the Republicans have also suffered losses in all recent elections. Democrats have won New York with Zohran Mamdani and took back the governorship of Virginia and defeated the attempt to unseat the liberal supreme court judges in Pennsylvania as well as winning their first non-federal statewide election in Georgia since 2006.
Russia’s projection of strength
Just as right-wing media encourages us to believe that the rise of the likes of Farage is inevitable, it seems strikingly similar to how Russia propagates its invincibility. Before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, many in the West believed that Russia had the second strongest army in the world. Kyiv was expected to ‘fall’ within days. This was a common belief in both the West and within the Kremlin. Yet, almost four years after the commencement of the Russian ‘special military operation’ the once considered mighty Russian army has very modest wins to book. According to the Kyiv Independent, which quotes monitoring sources, in August of this year, Russia has gained less than 1% of Ukrainian territory since November 2022.
Russia’s apparent indomitable army has indeed committed heinous war crimes and continues to bombard civilian targets and energy infrastructure. But it does not impress with military superiority and has suffered embarrassing losses including the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Operation Spiderweb which saw Ukraine eliminate up to 20% of Russia’s long-range aviation fleet. The innovative strategy of Ukrainian military command utilising cheap drones to pick off expensive Russian equipment, including a high-tech laser plane this last week, has confounded not only Russia, but also many who thought they had “no cards” – a quote from Donald Trump from February 2025.
It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Trump was looking for an easy way to end the war in Ukraine. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if he was lured into a deal where he could enhance his own wealth. It wouldn’t surprise anyone that Vladimir Putin seems to know exactly how to flatter Trump, as though he knows unsurprisingly exactly which Trumpian buttons to press to get the result most advantageous to him.
Donald Trump’s fading allure
Some political commentators are referring to these events as a ‘MAGA meltdown’ which can be understood as a combination of many recent negative factors for the Republicans and their MAGA president. Whether this is the shadow of the Epstein files, stuttering economy, persistent inflation and high living costs, rising company layoffs, and Trump’s failure to end the Ukraine war “on Day 1.”. Despite the projection, you might not be surprised that things are not going so well for Trump’s second presidency, at least not on a national level.
Trump’s popularity and approval ratings are tanking. Depending on which polls are used, his approval ratings are below 40% (Reuters), and according to The Economist have fallen faster than any other previous president’s. In the meantime, Trump has reported to have advanced his personal wealth by approximately $3bn, give or take a few million, through crypto deals and accepting gifts such as the luxury Boeing jet from the Qataris. With the Christmas period upon us, and compliance departments stipulating which gifts an average employee is allowed to accept, there seem to be no such limits in Trump’s world, or at least not for him and his closer circle.
You could shrug your shoulders and say, “it doesn’t surprise me”, but what does that mean? Why are we prepared to tolerate and accept what appears to be blatant self-enrichment and a conflict of interests? Where will it lead and what does it mean for global security?
Witkoff’s Russian escapades
Fittingly, when considering the transactional nature of the Trump presidency, it might not surprise you that his US special envoy (with no diplomatic experience) golfing buddy and business partner Steve Witkoff has been ‘negotiating’ with the Russians. The jury is out on who the main beneficiary will be, perhaps Russia, perhaps Trump’s inner circle. With almost absolute certainty, the deal is not positive for Ukraine, Europe or even America. It is not an attempt to make the world a safer place, but to present a deal to Trump that is both appealing to him and his sense of greed. It also promised to buy Russia more time when things, contrary to their propaganda reports, are not going well – both economically and on the battlefield.
Russia is suffering under economic sanctions. The lower price of oil means less revenue for the Russian war economy. This situation is becoming difficult to ignore. The Russian state has increasing liquidity problems. According to the Moscow Times, Russia Central Bank is now selling its physical gold reserves to overcome liquidity issues. With the looming threat of Europe, which appears finally willing to target the Russian shadow fleet, ships with opaque ownership sailing under invalid national flags and questionable insurance contracts, Russia might lose further revenue in the coming winter months. The tenacity of Ukrainian Flamingo long-range missiles which are hitting Russian oil and refinery plants only adds to Russia’s increasing incapability to control its oil market. The European plans to reallocate Russian frozen assets to Ukraine would also be a blow to Russian chances of victory.
Bluster and bravado on both sides
Despite all bluster and bravado in Russia, the situation in America, is also looking more unstable, both economically and politically. It might not then be a surprise that the proposed ‘peace plan’ from last week was conjured up from obscurity with a heavy Russian undertone; amongst other one-sided and completely unfeasible ideas, it promised to share (50%) the billions of Russian confiscated assets, currently lying in Belgium in Euroclear accounts, with the US as a form of incentivised partnership.
The whole plan has no legal foundations whatsoever, but appeared to appeal to Trump and his business partner Witkoff as more bounty and the opportunity for personal enrichment was on offer. It was an attempt to make Ukraine capitulate, detonate NATO, divide Europe and win time for a Russia that needs desperately to regroup and deflect from the current dire economic situation. Those familiar with Russian tactics and statecraft would indeed not be surprised. It is also unsurprising that Trump could also benefit from some distraction from his present unpopularity and increasing catastrophes at home.
However, some in the Republican party were surprised by this amateur and inexplicably damaging ‘peace proposal’. There have been reports of internal fighting amongst different fractions. Foreign Minister Rubio initially claimed it was a leaked Russian wish list and not America’s proposal. Others like Witkoff have been reported to have versed the Russians on how they could best sell the plan to Trump through flattery and shared bounty. You might ask yourself, who is on whose side. The answer may not be surprising; individual interests of a chosen few outweigh any national interests or the welfare of the majority.
What to do
Don’t claim to ‘not be surprised’ and return to a sedentary stupor. Think about what you can do to make a difference, rediscover your agency and play a part in stopping this madness. Start petitions, attend demonstrations, write to your MPs. Refuse to normalise the abnormal; behaviour that is dangerous, divisive and ultimately destructive for all of us needs to be stopped. This might not surprise you.
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