Are Labour on the victory march? It certainly seems that way based on the results of recent by-elections in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Tamworth, and Mid Bedfordshire. These contests have not only marked significant victories for the Labour Party but have also raised critical questions about what this indicates for the next general election. Join Julian Greenbank, Christopher Davis and special guest, Martin Roche from Bylines Scotland for analysis and discussion.
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
The by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West was triggered by the removal of Margaret Ferrier through a recall petition, following her breach of Covid restrictions. In what was a surprising turn of events, Labour gained the seat from the SNP with a substantial swing of 20.4%. This prompts questions about the SNP’s electoral prospects and whether there is a path back for Labour in Scotland. Martin from Bylines Scotland brings his in depth knowledge of Scottish politics to tell us what conclusions we can draw from the result.
Tamworth
The Tamworth by-election presented a formidable challenge for the Conservative Party after the resignation of Chris Pincher, who resigned amid controversy. Labour’s Sarah Edwards emerged victorious, securing a swing of 23.9%, the second-largest in post-war election history. This defeat is particularly significant given Tamworth’s standing as the 57th safest Conservative seat in the nation. Notably, the Tory candidate’s inflammatory remarks on social media may have contributed to the surprising outcome. Christopher Davis explains more about how Labour may have won this seat, but also discusses the 9.4% vote share won by hard-right parties.
Mid Bedfordshire
In Mid Bedfordshire, Labour’s Alistair Strathern secured a remarkable victory, overturning the Tories’ stronghold since 1931. The win, with a majority of 1,192, marked the largest Conservative majority overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945. This result tops the hat trick for Labour with these byelections. Julian Greenbank provides some context for why the Conservatives performed so poorly, including recent behaviour from the previous MP Nadine Dorries.
The recent by-elections collectively indicate change in the political environment across the UK. As the Conservatives struggle to hold on to previously safe seats, the results serve as a reminder that no constituency can be taken for granted and indicates that Labour are on the march to victory at the next election…whenever that may be.
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