Throughout the years, I observed with great pride as Scotland rejected the far-right. Everyone I spoke to on either side of the political spectrum refused even to entertain the idea of UKIP when it was at its height, and the visit of the party’s leader, Nigel Farage, sparked big protests in Edinburgh. It was excellent at losing deposits at elections, and despite gaining one MEP in Scotland, Scottish Conservative leader of the time, Jackson Carlaw, refused to accept said UKIP MEP into the Conservatives when he tried to defect.
As Alex Salmond put it, the people of Scotland did keep UKIP “frozen out of Scottish politics”. Truly, rejection of far-right politics is a badge of honour that Scotland deserves to wear with pride. But for how much longer?
Worrying polls
Since September last year, in opinion polls for Holyrood’s regional vote, Reform UK has averaged a score of 11.4%. This means that it is not entirely outwith the realms of possibility that this born again UKIP under Nigel Farage could win seats in the Scottish Parliament. Given that the Scottish Greens won eight seats with 8.1% of the regional vote, it is worrying that this could happen. Of course, things will play out differently in different regions, but that by no means makes it OK to write off the threat of Reform.
Added to this is the worrying result at the past UK general election. Whereas these elections mean different things to voters than the Scottish elections do, they still have an impact on a party’s performance. In the last general election, Reform UK won 167,979 votes in Scotland, 7% of the vote. UKIP, by contrast, at the height of its popularity in 2015 only managed 47,078 votes in Scotland, 1.6% of the vote. Given that Reform UK is just a modern variant of UKIP, the far-right party has seen a jump in support which shows more people in Scotland willing to entertain it.
Never underestimate nationalism
“Labour will not lose a single seat in Scotland”. Then Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy said this of the 2015 general election in the face of the rising Scottish National Party. What happened? Labour was all but wiped out, losing 40 seats to the SNP, being left with a single seat north of the border and not recovering properly until the 2024 general election just shy of a decade later.
But it wasn’t just the SNP Labour fell to in 2015: the party in England saw significant support fall to the far-right UKIP. Painted as a threat to the Conservatives, it was Labour who suffered more from Farage’s influence. The lesson here is that, whether civic and left-wing or hostile and right-wing, if you underestimate nationalism, you do it to your own detriment.
If Scotland does this with Reform, there will be grave consequences for the nation. I’m glad to see that I am not the only one who sees the threat Reform UK is posing in Scotland. I’m glad I’m not the only one who sees its terrifying potential to enter Scottish politics. But far too few are seeing this and if not addressed now, if the mantra and rhetoric are allowed to creep into Scotland’s debate unchallenged, Nigel Farage will be able to claim support and a partial, minority mandate in Scotland. If that happens, it is a slippery slope to all the progressive work from over the decades in Scotland being undone.
More in politics.
Liked the article? Why not share it on Bluesky?
