When Keir Starmer meets EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in London tomorrow for the UK-EU summit, hopes will be high that a greatly improved deal can be reached compared to the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson when he was in No10.
The EU is the UK’s most important trading partner. Last year, Britain sent 41% of its goods and services to the EU, valued at £358 bn. In terms of UK imports, 51% (£454 bn) came from the EU.
Exports to the US in 2024 were valued at $72.33 bn.
Speaking to The Standard newspaper about the UK-US trade deal announced earlier this month, Ben Caswell, senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said:
“Whilst the new trade deal with the US constitutes a political win for the Government, the direct impacts on UK GDP are likely to be very small.”
The more harmonious relations between the UK and the EU since Labour came to power do not mean that the London summit will produce a greatly improved deal. However, both sides want to send signals to a fractious world that the UK and Europe are on far friendlier terms than at any time since the Brexit vote in 2016.
Creating the conditions for increased trade between them has become far more important since Donald Trump was re-elected and started his chaotic tariff wars. The more Britain and Europe trade with each other the less dependent they become on other markets. Thus, each side can improve their ability to withstand any further economic instability created by Trump, or by rising tensions in Eastern Europe, Asia or the Middle East.
“UK should seek maximum re-engagement despite Labour’s ‘red lines’”
Pro-Europeans on this side of the Channel dream of the UK rejoining the Single Market and the Customs Union. That outcome is unlikely in the foreseeable future. Labour came to power on the back of a manifesto commitment to retain the ‘red lines’ of the previous Conservative government.
SNP MP and Professor of International Relations, Stephen Gethins, says he wants the UK to seek maximum re-engagement with the EU. However, he warns that the trust between the two sides, which was so damaged by Brexit, will need to be carefully rebuilt.
“I’m not sure what parts of Brexit were so successful under the Conservatives that Labour now mimics the previous government’s policy.”
The EU remains the world’s largest free trade bloc. It is not only geographically the nearest to the UK, but also the closest politically and economically. We know the damage Brexit has done, so we want to deepen the relationship between the parties, particularly given global instability.”
Put small and medium sized enterprises and young people at forefront of summit
Gethins wants to see small businesses and young people at the forefront of the summit negotiations. He points to the huge costs and complex bureaucracy forced on UK business by Brexit.
Late last year, an Aston University Business School study found that 1,645 fewer types of goods were being exported to the EU than was the case before Brexit. Overall, UK exports to Europe were down 27% between 2021 and 2023.
“Make it easier for business to do business and easier for young people to regain some of their opportunities to work, study and experience other countries that were lost to Brexit,” says Gethins.
Long lines of tired and fractious passengers waiting to get through customs and immigration at airports and international ports is one of the more obvious and loathed aspects of the UK leaving the EU. Gethins, who is MP for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, wants to see procedures and processes made simpler and quicker.
“The current rules are a burden on everybody,” says the MP, “We are in a competitive environment. Attracting visitors to Scotland is very important to people across Scotland and to the Scottish hospitality, leisure and tourism sectors. We want people to spend their money in Scotland and not be put off by the bureaucracy that has been introduced since Brexit.”
“Farage is a midwife of failure”
Asked how mainstream politicians should react to criticisms of the outcomes of the UK-EU summit, Gethins was forceful.
“Take them on. Labour is trying to be ‘Reform lite’. We need to take Reform on. Farage is a midwife of failure. He is one of the root causes of the cost-of-living crisis in the UK. Holding Reform to account is not difficult. Farage’s policies have played havoc with our public finances and with our security. We need to call him out.”
Listen to Roche talking to Gethins:
More in Europe.
