Tony Blair, the last UK Labour prime minister before Keir Starmer to win a landslide general election, was seen by pro-Europeans as someone with the domestic political authority and intellectual weight to become the de facto leader of the EU. Such hopes were to be unfulfilled. That Blair believed in the EU is beyond dispute. While he would champion the institution when required, his foreign policy interests focused elsewhere. The Europe of the Blair years was one in which broadly centrist parties – Social and Christian Democrats – ran most of the continent’s nation-states and the EU itself. The ship of ever-closer union appeared to be on a steady course, characterised by enlargement, growing prosperity and substantial social cohesion.
What a different Europe Keir Starmer finds. The rise of the Right has weakened the essential consensus that holds the EU together. Anti-immigrant protests are daily occurrences. The far-Right senses its time may be nearing. Climate change mitigation and the drive for energy security are shifting the established economic order, with voters yet to see clear benefits in their pockets. Rearmament, with all its economic and moral challenges, is now seen as urgent. Emmanuel Macron’s gamble to stop National Rally effectively ended his status as leader of Europe. No other contender is obvious in any European state.
To whom then does Europe’s centre turn to find dependable, politically comfortable leadership that believes in a strong Europe and a strong trans-Atlantic alliance? Much as he may not wish to wear the crown, the tide of events and Europe’s leadership vacuum may see Keir Starmer emerge as the single most influential Western politician of our time.
“We want to work with you”
Since coming to power, Starmer has left no doubt about his commitment to NATO. He’s boosted financial and arms support to Ukraine.
At the recent Blenheim Palace meeting of European leaders, he said:
“We want to work with you to reset relationships, rediscover our common interests and renew the bonds of trust and friendship that brighten the fabric of European life.”
As a signal to the meeting of the UK’s positive intent, it was perhaps the most pro-Europe speech by any British prime minister since Edward Heath took the UK into the European Economic Community in 1973. Starmer’s oration had, as current circumstances prompted, a harder edge on defence. He cited his position on Ukraine “We will stand with you as long as it takes” and emphasised Europe’s need to support NATO and build stronger defences.
Starmer’s strength as a new kid on the leadership block rests on firm ground. Labour has, at least for the next five years, recovered great swathes of Scotland. His positive moves on Europe have settled nerves in Northern Ireland. The new administration has moved with speed and purpose, creating a wave of cautious optimism across the UK. Its approach to the public finances will not upset even the most conservative of Europe’s finance ministers and central bankers. Ideologically, Starmer’s Labour looks like a hybrid model of both main wings of traditional European centrism and of modern liberal economic orthodoxy. He and his government are arguably the most stable and secure in Europe.
Instinct for solutions
In politics, personality can count as much as policy. Starmer is the personification of steadiness. A technocrat with a lawyer’s instinct for finding solutions. He makes much of his modest background: no silver spoon for him. His family life is apparently happy and stable. He is, it seems, a man of traditional family values. A loving father with tough and serious elements ready to be deployed when needs must. A dependable figure in difficult times.
We might need Starmer more than we pro-Europeans might be entirely happy with. After all, he says he can’t see us back in Europe in his lifetime. But listen to him pour unbridled praise on France for the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics. See him share a pint with Ireland’s Taoiseach, Simon Harris, and he’s visiting Dublin on 7September. Look at his warm words at Blenheim. Former Labour leader (and former EU Commissioner) Neil Kinnock says Westminster is now overwhelmingly pro-EU and has urged Labour MPs of that ilk to make their voices heard. In essence, Kinnock, who is close to Starmer, is saying it’s an open door, so keep pushing.
What the pro-Europe cause across the EU must do is make it as easy as possible for Starmer’s government to make big strides in European reconciliation. We must help persuade the public to not only accept the logic of heavyweight European rapprochement but also give it good reasons to believe reversing Brexit is in the interests of every household in the land.
There are echoes here of Angela Merkel, of “Mutti” the “mother of Europe.” Europe found in Merkel the dominant leader it needed to rise to the challenges of her time. Keir Starmer may emerge as her natural successor. Events alone may leave him no choice.
The UK’s enthusiasts for Europe would surely approve. Starmer at the top of Europe’s pecking order would surely ease the UK’s path to recovering much if not all of what was lost to Brexit.
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