Labour faces huge challenges

Labour has come to power. Wise people wish Keir Starmer and his ministers well. They enter government with a huge list of domestic and international problems to address. The UK has been hollowed out by a combination of the Conservative’s obsession with creating a ‘small state’ society, catastrophic economic mismanagement, the pandemic, war in Ukraine and, most disastrously, Brexit. On the global stage, we find Russia’s unholy alliance with North Korea, Beijing’s sabre rattling at Taiwan, Gaza in flames, accelerating global warming and the looming prospect of a Trump presidency bringing the world added instability.

Just as the UK needs to have faith that Sir Keir has the skills to successfully steer the ship of state in turbulent times, he needs the peoples and nations of the UK to be on his side. They expect him to deliver on his promises. They expect him to govern with decency and fairness. He surely has the instincts for the latter. The former will be much harder.

Recent history has dealt Sir Keir as bad a hand as any held by a UK prime minister since Neville Chamberlain. Internationally, malign and foreboding clouds are gathering. Despite the French rejecting Le Pen’s National Rally party, the far-right is on the march in Europe. Nigel Farage seeks to mobilise the discontented here. All this suits Putin. A Trump presidency may make the US a less reliable ally and gravely test the West’s resolve on Ukraine.

The fastest route to growth is through Europe

Keir Starmer has nailed his colours to growth, without adequately explaining how this is to be done. The simplest and most confidence-building action, economically and politically, would be to start negotiations to rejoin the European Single Market. Labour stupidly dug itself into a Brexit corner in its strategy to ditch the Tories. It has doubled down on this position since being elected.

It seems the free movement of people is at the centre of Labour’s EU fears. If it thinks it can hold back the Farage tide by appeasement over immigration it is almost sure to be wrong. The very best way to wound Farage is to put money into people’s pockets. It’s the economy stupid. When people feel confident about their personal finances and those of the nation, they are much less inclined to support the kind of disruption championed by Farage and Reform. So, growth is urgent. The answer lies in Europe. It is an open goal. Starmer needs to score.

Voter discontent could see Scotland take the independence option

Without economic success over the next few years, Labour may find a Scotland looking for salvation in independence. Voter volatility is now an established part of UK politics. Just as the SNP crushed Labour in three UK general elections in the decade just past, Labour has smashed the SNP in 2024. Should Scotland grow unhappy with Labour’s progress it always has other options. But, a Scotland back in the Single Market would be a Scotland with reason to be grateful to Labour and a country disinclined to give Reform much in the way of votes.

Farage’s Reform party may be a minnow now, but he knows how to marginalise moderate, consensus politics. Reform is the enemy within for the middle ground, left or right. It will happily weaponise economic failure in its pursuit of power. Rebuilding concrete EU ties is not an option but a necessity. Reaffirming the binding ties of the EU will help sustain peace in Europe.

Rebuilding the UK’s conventional forces is vital and urgent

And the UK must rearm. Its conventional armed forces are dangerously inadequate in terms of weapons platforms and fighting soldiers. Not having sufficiently muscular conventional forces limits our options if tensions escalate. Sustaining our current nakedness may lead us to nuclear posturing and that could see an enemy take first strike action. We must act now to give our Service chiefs defence forces that are a credible conventional deterrent and an instrument to give diplomacy time to reduce tensions and find solutions that take us as far from nuclear war as possible.

Arms and men cost a great deal of money. The country is in little mood to accept deeper cuts to public services to rearm for a conflict that currently seems distant to many. But rearm we must. Money is needed on all fronts and quickly. Key EU economic institutions are there for us. We need only make the right noises and we can begin to mitigate the 4% per annum GDP hit from Brexit. That annual damage is forecast to last another ten years. We can’t afford that. Labour can’t afford that. Carpe diem.

The new government in London must be bold, pragmatic and quick.