Nigel Farage will be dancing with joy. Donald Trump, his greatest political friend, has captured the world’s grandest political prize. Farage must now see the door opening to ever-more success in the UK. It’s quite a record. Without him, the UK would still be in the EU. Brexit has almost destroyed the Conservative Party, costing it five leaders and an enormous general election defeat. That election saw Farage win himself a long-coveted Westminster seat. There he leads a party of five MPs. A party that didn’t exist four years ago.
Not surprisingly, the Conservatives have decided their biggest enemy is not Labour but that loyal Trump cheerleader Nigel Farage. Farage is stalking the Conservatives like a lion stalks wounded prey. He’ll pounce on any weakness from new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. He knows if Badenoch can’t cut the mustard a significant number of Tory party members will lobby for him to take the reins.
In the meantime, Farage’s Reform Party plans a full-frontal electoral attack on Scotland. It intends to contest the next Holyrood general election in 2026. You can be sure that Reform is in the process of building a well-funded and well-resourced electoral machine. There will be no shortage of cash.
Reform will have begun identifying candidates. Two councillors in Scotland recently defected to it, giving the party its first elected representatives north of the border. Farage may look to Elon Musk for help on social media. Some press barons may be tempted to back him in Scotland.
Farage specialises in identifying discontent and seeding more
Scottish politics will never have seen anything like the 2026 Holyrood campaign. Farage specialises in identifying discontent and seeding more. He is the grand master of finding a grievance and pointing the finger of blame, of finding scapegoats. Badenoch (assuming she stays in post) may expect new Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay to join her in trying to out-Farage Farage.
If recent behaviour is anything to go by, both parties will wage culture wars and seek to sow division. Rifts that already exist in Scottish society will be called in aide. When convenient, new ones will be created.
If you think Scottish politics is nasty, narrow and divisive now “you ain’t seen nutin yet.” If you thought Scotland was an essentially left of centre place your perception may be a mirage. If Scottish nationalism gets your goat, wait around a bit because English nationalism is coming here soon. How do we know? Because Reform’s 2024 manifesto promised to make St George’s Day a national holiday. There was no mention of St Andrew, St David or St Patrick.
‘Left behind’ towns ripe for the picking
Reform would like to win Holyrood seats in places like the Borders, rural Aberdeenshire, Corstorphine and Newton Mearns. Such success would be icing on the cake. It is far more likely to put its effort into seats traditionally held by the SNP or Labour. Post-industrial places like Greenock, Clydebank, Kilmarnock and Grangemouth. Seats where people have seen little change in the economic health of their towns. Places that look not unlike towns in England that now have Reform MPs. Scotland’s ‘left behind’ towns are ripe for the picking by Reform.
Farage is a highly skilled populist. A well-established technique to set one group against another is to blame an ‘elite.’ It’s a term endlessly elastic, as far as Mr Farage is concerned.
Not long after the Brexit referendum, speaking on LBC radio, he said he was “tired of the global elites talking down Britain,” following a comment by US financial media chief, Michael Bloomberg. During the recent London march by farmers, Farage said, “North Londoneliteshate the countryside because rural Britons are ‘too white.’” Thus, he pitted town against country and played the race card in the same soundbite.
Farage thinks there are ‘far too many’ students at British universities and he’d scrap free tuition, with only people studying science, technology, engineering, medicine or maths getting state support.
On top of ending universal free university tuition in Scotland, let’s ask about the Reform fate of such policies as free buses for the under 22s. How about the NHS free at the point of use? Free prescriptions? Toll-free bridges? Subsidised ferries? Progressive taxation? Public support for culture?
“I wad na gie a button for them.”
Here is what Nigel Farage said on the eve of Trump’s victory on 5 November.
“This is the sexy bit: Elon comes in and takes a knife to the deep state. Just like Twitter where he sacked 80% of staff. There are going to be mass layoffs whole departments closing. I’m hoping and praying that’s the blueprint for what we then do our side of the pond.”
Squaring up like squabbling adolescents
For decades, Labour and the SNP have squared up to each other like squabbling adolescents, sometimes like fury-blinded infants. The madness is that both are deeply social democrat, internationalist and pro-EU. Both see the dangers of climate change. Both want a better Scotland. Both must see the threat of Farage bringing his toxic brand of politics here.
Is it simply too naive to suggest to John Swinney and Anas Sarwar respectively that there might be worse things than a Scotland in the UK and worse things than an independent Scotland? The real enemy is surely not each other. The real enemy is heading your way. You’ll know him by the company he keeps. Donald Trump being prime among them.
If the parties of Scotland’s centre ground can see the writing on the wall, they’ll be sensible and direct most of their energy, time and resources not at mauling each other, but at making life better in Greenock, Clydebank, Kilmarnock and Grangemouth.
Of course, you can fight for the promise of independence or for the continuity of the union. Most of all fight the toxicity, the pure moral bankruptcy, the human cul-de-sac that is the politics of Nigel Farage and his ilk.
This article was first published in The Herald.
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