There is a consensus among polls that the SNP will be returned to Holyrood as the largest party for a fifth term. To give you a sense of how long the SNP has been the largest party at Holyrood, the party has been in power since the iPhone was invented. So, if you can imagine a time without the now ubiquitous and omnipresent iPhone you can conceive a Scottish parliament without the SNP as the major player.
Little agreement that the SNP will win a majority
Not all the polling news is good for the SNP. There is no consensus about the SNP winning enough seats to form a majority. As John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, points out, the SNP is less popular than it was when the last elections were held in 2021. The SNP is helped by the fact that both Labour and the Conservatives have suffered declines. Politics in Scotland like that of the rest of the United Kingdom is fragmented and clear outcomes are likely to become rare.
Going forward after the May elections, much will depend on SNP Leader John Swinney’s ability to put together a coalition. Swinney has said that he would immediately put forward legislation for a referendum on Scottish independence. Interestingly, a referendum on independence may serve as a tool for Swinney to build a coalition.
An absolute SNP majority is not out of the realm of possibilities
Polling is as much an art as science, and the Scottish political system, in which people cast votes for their local constituencies and their regions, means that it is not always possible to predict the exact outcome. Using a different methodology, the organisation Electoral Calculus estimates that the SNP could win as many as 67 seats. In particular the pollster argues that the SNP will be propelled into majority status because of the Conservative meltdown especially in the five constituency seats in the Borders and the Northeast where the party is defending – thereby potentially putting all these seats into the SNP column.
A volatile election for all parties
Prof Curtice makes an incredibly valuable point when he draws our attention to the fact that polling from Ipsos shows that fully 42% of voters say that they could change their votes. Back in 2021, only 25% said that they might change their minds. This clearly indicates that there is all to play for with the election roughly a week away.
John Swinney charges ahead
SNP Leader John Swinney is not waiting to see if the voters reward his party with a majority at Holyrood. He has announced that he will move forward on the independence issue with or without a majority. Swinney’s legislative effort would have no legal impact, for as The Guardian reminds us:
“The supreme court ruled decisively in 2022 that only the UK government could legislate for an independence referendum – a decision that precipitated Sturgeon’s resignation as First Minister. The UK Government has repeatedly said it would refuse to approve a referendum.”
Swinney’s promise to put independence front and centre is a bold move to play to his party’s strength. The downside is that he might lose voters who see the cost-of-living crisis and health care as the most pressing issues. Russell Findlay, the Scottish Conservative leader attacked Swinney:
“Instead of focusing on the cost-of-living crisis, jobs, education or the NHS, he’s hellbent on plunging Holyrood into fresh constitutional chaos.”
The bottom line: SNP still leads the pack
Heading into the home stretch of the race, the SNP is still the odds-on favourite to maintain its place as the largest party in Scotland. Yet, there is doubt about its ability to win an outright majority – as it stands this election promises to be anything but a dull.
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