The Scottish Parliament will sit once again with its 7th group of MSPs, the SNP being the largest group for the fifth consecutive time, marking almost two decades in power. John Swinney now has an elected mandated to govern from the people of Scotland and, once again, the country has returned a majority of pro-independence MSPs.
History has been made on many fronts as the Scottish Greens have achieved their best ever result in Holyrood history, Labour have suffered their worst result since Scottish devolution began, Reform UK have their first ever members of the Scottish Parliament and Conservatives have fallen to their lowest ever seat share.
But, if you look closely at the results, a number of details tell different stories to the main national picture. From surprise wins and losses to underperformances, the 2026 Scottish election has much to make political fans reach for the popcorn.
SNP losses
Much was made about the Scottish National Party (SNP) winning an overall majority in the Holyrood elections for the first time since Alex Salmond’s 2011 landslide, with many opinion polls forecasting such a result. Yet, when the gauntlet was down, despite gaining two constituency seats across the country, the SNP lost eight seats, giving them a net loss of six. Down from 64 seats at the last election, John Swinney took his party’s tally to 58 seats, the lowest since 2007 when they returned just 47 seats. That said, the SNP still became the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, with their nearest challengers – Labour and Reform – far behind on 17 seats each. The SNP lost four seats to the Liberal Democrats and two seats each to the Scottish Greens and Labour.
The SNP also fared badly in terms of their vote share, losing 9.5% overall on the constituency vote and 13.2% on the regional vote. In terms of Scottish independence, given John Swinney’s use of a vote for the SNP as a mandate for a second Scottish independence referendum, could the dream be shattered for the nationalist leader?
The Shetland surprise
Despite the loss of seats, the SNP made two gains across the country, one of which in Shetland. Hannah Goodlad took the seat for the nationalists from the Liberal Democrats with a 10% swing in her favour from the incumbent party.
An SNP source at the election count in the Scottish Borders put the result down to “strong SNP candidate” but even then, the result is remarkable.
Firstly, the Shetland Islands have been in Liberal Democrat hands since the dawn of devolution, always resisting the strong national pull of the SNP at the height of their popularity and returning Lib Dem MSPs with high majorities prior to the resignation of the constituency’s longest-serving MSP, Tavish Scott in 2019.
Secondly, not only have the SNP won a seat in a pro-unionist area, not unheard of in elections, but they’ve won a seat in a massively pro-union area. In 2014, Shetland recorded Scotland’s 4th highest No vote with 63.7% voting against independence compared to 36.3% voting in favour of it. Could this be down to Goodlad’s campaign which was hailed by local people? Could it be down to aggressive SNP campaigns in the region over the years where, in 2019, the party spent more money on the 2019 by-election than the entire EU referendum? Or could it be because of a turn in the tide in attitudes towards Scottish independence?
Hannah Goodlad won with 47.5% of the vote to Liberal Democrat candidate Emma MacDonald’s 34.3%, securing a majority of 1,500 votes. The Greens achieved 8.3% of the vote, Reform UK got 6.3% and Labour and the Conservatives lost their deposit, each getting 1.5% and 1.2% respectively.
Reform’s humbling
Reform UK was looking forward to major success in Scotland in what was their first real challenge as a political force north of the border. Despite their predecessor party, UKIP, never managing to take off in Scotland, Reform has managed to make an impression on Scottish voters and, in the run-up to the election, it looked like they would become the official opposition in Holyrood, with potentially 20 seats, including some constituency MSPs.
In the event, however, they failed. Yes, they won 16.6% of the vote on the regional list, amounting to 383,425 votes and 17 MSPs, but they fell short in the constituencies. Seats which were predicted to turn turquoise by pollsters such as Dumfriesshire and Banffshire and Buchan Coast remained Conservative blue and SNP yellow respectively. Malcolm Offord, the Farage-appointed leader of Reform UK in Scotland not only failed to win his seat of Inverclyde, but he failed to win it badly. While he was one of only two candidates to actually gain support in the constituency, he came third behind both the SNP and Labour, achieving only 17.6% of the vote (5,649). He was elected to parliament via the regional list.
Greens in power
One major factor of the result is the position that the Scottish Greens are potentially in. The 2026 election not only saw them achieve 14% of the vote and 13 seats on the regional list overall, they also made a breakthrough in Scotland’s constituencies, taking Edinburgh Central from the SNP Constitutional Spokesperson Angus Robertson and Glasgow Southside, the seat of former SNP leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
With the Greens now occupying 15 seats in the Scottish Parliament and the SNP knocked down to 58 seats, now more than ever, the SNP may need to rely on their votes, especially on issues like independence where the other parties will never agree to support Swinney.
With this power, the Greens can use their strengthened voice to influence SNP policy and get greener legislation put through parliament.
Is Scottish independence still on the cards?
John Swinney used the prospect of an SNP majority in Holyrood as a mandate to hold a second independence referendum during the election campaign. Yet, when voters went to the polls, they brought the SNP down to 58 seats, giving them an even smaller minority in Scotland. On the constituency vote, they only garnered 38.2% of the vote (877,077 votes), while on the regional list vote, they only won 27.2% of the vote (625,949 votes). This does not bode well for Swinney’s independence plans if less than a third of Scots vote for his party on the regional list.
Could the Greens save the day, however? With 15 Green seats, the number of pro-independence MSPs goes from the 58 the SNP have to 73, well over the 65 needed for a majority. With Green votes, the SNP could get an independence referendum bill through parliament no trouble.
But, even with the additional Green seats, the popular vote is still not behind the pro-independence parties. On the list vote, combined votes for the SNP, the Scottish Greens, Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party, the Scottish Socialist Party and Independence for Scotland Party only tally up to 42.8% while combined votes for Labour, Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats alone add up to 53.8%. This shows that in the regional list vote, where people tend to support political parties over local constituency candidates, parties that officially support the Union won more votes than parties that support independence. Does this mean the appetite for independence has gone down?
Not necessarily, as the opinion polls on Scottish independence tell a different story. Five consecutive opinion polls conducted between March 2026 and the Scottish elections show that a majority of Scots back independence. Looking at the opinion polls, and taking into consideration that not everyone votes according to their opinion on Scottish independence, it could be said that the low support for pro-independence parties could be less about independence, and more about their performance on other issues.
Losses for the SNP, a surprise in Shetland and a less good than expected night for Reform. With a historic result for the Greens and the issue of Scottish independence rearing its head once again, these five things to come from the 2026 Scottish election must not be ignored.
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