For all that his star has faded in recent years, it’s odd imagining Scottish politics without Alex Salmond, who died on Saturday after collapsing at an event in North Macedonia. Given what has been happening in recent weeks, he could hardly have chosen a more volatile moment at which to make his exit. Labour’s general election win in July, following a decline in public confidence in the SNP, seemed to signal one of those periodic realignments the country goes through, and at that point we might reasonably have expected at least five years of Labour dominance. The by-election results that have come in since, however, suggest that something very different is going on, and suddenly next year’s Holyrood election looks wide open.
No longer business as usual
Why did Labour do so well in July? There are three obvious reasons. First, both the SNP and the Conservatives, in their different areas, had been in power for a long time, and that in itself can inspire voters to seek change. Second, the SNP was reeling from the scandal surrounding its former chair, despite being the alleged victim in that case. Third, it was clear that Labour were going to beat the Conservatives across the UK as a whole, and people wanted to be part of that. But here’s the thing: usually, after an unpopular government is replaced, there is a general excitement about the victors which persists for several months. Labour shouldn’t be starting to slip for another year or two – but they are.
The reason for the proliferation of local by-elections recently is that many former Labour councillors have gone on to become MPs, like pawns reaching the end of a chessboard. They have left vacant council seats behind and these need to be filled. Of the 12 seats up for grabs over the past three months, Labour have won five, the SNP four, the Liberal Democrats two. One, in Cromarty Firth, has gone to an independent – well-respected community activist Sinclair Coghill, who has campaigned for improvements to local infrastructure. At first glance, this looks like a decent result for Labour, but look a little closer and the cracks appear.
What happened in the council by-elections
Let’s leave aside Kintyre and the Islands, where Labour didn’t stand – it’s one of those areas with its own distinct approach to politics and there really would have been no point. Likewise Cromarty Firth, where it only polled 3.2% on first presences and the combined Lib Dem and SNP vote at the stage was less than that garnered by the three leading independent candidates. As the latter accounted for two seats, that leaves us with nine to consider.
Labour did best in Arran, where their main opponents were the Conservatives, who collapsed as they have done elsewhere. They benefited from a similar swing in Dunblane and Bridge of Allan, where the transfer of SNP votes to the Greens also helped them. Elsewhere, though, the results were far less decisive than they might reasonably have expected. They scraped a win in Armadale and Blackridge, only thanks to transfers from the Lib Dems and Conservatives, in a contest which was complicated by a strong showing for Reform UK, and in which a hefty portion of SNP votes shifted to relative newcomers Independence For Scotland (IFS).
The win in Inverness Central was good news for Labour, but fell well short of its hopes, with the SNP still ahead on first preferences. Both these parties likely lost some votes to the Scottish Greens, who exceeded expectations and pushed the Conservatives into fourth place. Labour and the SNP both struggled in Strathallan, where the Conservatives benefited from transfers from both the Lib Dems and Reform UK, giving them a comfortable second place as the Lib Dems won.
In Perth City North, Labour fell well below its target vote. The same thing happened in Lochee, which, on the basis of its general election progress, it should easily have taken – and had it performed as general election winners usually do at this stage in the political cycle, it should also have taken Strathmartine, or at least come a lot closer than it did. Then there’s Fortissat, where it had every reason to be overjoyed about its success, except when taking into account the wider picture. In second place on first preferences was Progressive Change North Lanarkshire (PCNL), a completely new party founded by former SNP councillors which, should it get established – as this result clearly gives it a chance to – could present a serious challenge going forwards. If it ends up folding back into its mother party, Labour is unlikely to be able to hold the seat.
No matter who you vote for, the government always gets in
Labour’s victory across the UK was wide – giving it a lot of MPs – but shallow, failing to generate as many strong majorities as the party had hoped to. That puts it in a vulnerable position, which individual MPs with small majorities are keenly aware of. At the same time, its intensive election campaigning has left it low on funds and keen to please prospective funders. Could this be why it was felt the need to make certain controversial decisions? Its eagerness to continue with or even double down on the Conservative government’s approach to issues like immigration, healthcare for trans people, and the conflict in Gaza has disappointed many supporters. Decisions like taking away the winter fuel payment from pensioners have left a lot of those who voted for change at the general election feeling outright betrayed.
Aware that his party is struggling to keep the public on side, Anas Sarwar has urged voters to remember that Labour has only been in power for three months, and to compare that with 17 years of the SNP. But therein lies the problem. If Labour can’t get the numbers in that situation, what hope will it have if it continues to make such unpopular decisions? In this week’s Drumchapel/Anniesland council election, Labour will be running Davena Rankin, a candidate who used to be a member of the Conservative Party. This feels like a gift to the opposition. Anger at talk of blue and red Tories is not enough. If it wants voters to feel confident that it deserves their support, it cannot afford to position itself so close to what they have recently rejected.
Re-alignment on the right
All of this is complicated not only by the death of Salmond, which leaves the fate of Alba uncertain – something that could advantage the party he previously left – but also by last Thursday’s result in the Conservative leadership election. With the removal of James Cleverly signalling a move even further to the right, and with the One Nation group expressly rejecting remaining candidates Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, it looks like the long-anticipated split in the Conservative Party is finally going to happen.
That would make the right wing of UK politics a crowded place – but even as this might bring comfort to Labour, sitting pretty at Westminster under first past the post, it will open up space for opposition parties on the left. Should they choose to go for it, that could work out nicely for the Lib Dems, whose performance since the general election has been impressive. It could also see the Green Party of England and Wales surge forward, now that it has proven it can be a winner. In Scotland, it could also allow for a resurgence of the SNP.
It is a long time since Scottish politics has been this open to possibility. Now is the time for ordinary voters, right across the spectrum, to make their voices heard. Perhaps this is no longer an age for big personalities like Salmond. Perhaps we are finally entering a time when everybody’s concerns will be heard.
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