With the Holyrood elections coming into view, pollsters are starting to examine what the elections might produce. Before we look at what the polls are telling us, it is important to just review a few essentials. A poll may or may not be predictive, as it only shows you what the electorate is thinking at a specific moment in time. Also, polling is exceptionally good at showing us what people are thinking, but not why they are thinking it. For example, polling may tell us that X% of respondents are supportive of a political party, but we can only infer reasons for their support.
Another thing to bear in mind is that polling is harder to do than previously, because people are harder to reach. A couple of decades ago, you could easily poll people by ringing them at home. Today, people are much less inclined to pick up the phone or answer a knock at the door.
Finally, pollsters look to construct their polls and their questionnaires based on the results of the previous election. For the Holyrood elections, this is harder to do because the last election was in 2021 during the Covid pandemic. Interestingly, turnout in the 2021 election was up almost 8%, which means that people were not afraid to go out and vote. The increased turnout might have been the result of people being able to work from home, which made it easier to budget time to vote.
The initial picture: SNP looking to cement a majority
Polling conducted by Survation finds that just over one in three (35%) are preferring the SNP. This would put the SNP within three votes of a majority in Holyrood. Labour and Reform UK equally attract roughly one in five (19%) of the electorate. On the regional lists, the SNP has a more commanding lead as almost one in three (32%) say they would vote for the SNP. Reform UK (18%) and Labour (17%) are in a close race for second place. Finishing out the rest of the field, we find the Conservatives with 13%, the Greens with 11% and the Liberal Democrats with 8%.
Reform UK v Labour
When asked how they would vote in a constituency where only the Scottish Labour Party or Reform UK could win, 37% say Labour and 31% pick Reform UK. With the election fast approaching, a key question is going to be whether an anti-Reform UK coalition can come together. Right now, Labour is positioned to take second place in the election. Labour’s hopes of second place depend on SNP voters switching from SNP in selected districts where the race is between Labour and Reform UK.
What issues are on the minds of Scottish voters?
In polling conducted for the BBC by the polling firm Savanta in March 2026, it was clear that three issues are driving voters: the economy, including above all the cost of living; health and social care; and immigration. No surprises here. We can safely surmise that rising petrol prices, because of the Iran war, will only increase voters’ concerns about the economy and the cost of living. More than half of respondents find that the economy has gotten worse over the last year and roughly half feel the NHS has gotten worse.
Some of the interesting trends in the BBC polling were that:
“Older voters, together with women, are particularly likely to mention health and social care, whereas housing is mentioned most often by younger voters. Immigration is particularly an issue for those who voted for Reform at the 2024 election.”
Immigration remains divisive
Immigration divides the Scottish electorate, with 44% of Scottish voters believing migrants are good for Scotland and 30% believing they are bad. Despite this, 48% of people still think Scotland needs fewer migrants, with only 17% thinking it needs more. Not surprisingly the BBC polling finds that “Those who voted Reform or Conservative in 2024 are more likely to say that migrants from outside the UK are bad for their country than they are to feel that they are good”.
Fiscal choices
Just over one in four (27%) of voters think that the Scottish Government should reduce taxes and spend less on public services while 22% disagree. Interestingly, a 47% plurality feel the income tax in Scotland should be the same as in England.
Wither Reform UK
A Norstat survey for The Sunday Times, released on 4 April, showed a substantial decline in backing for Nigel Farage’s party, compared with February. Scottish Labour had a clear advantage in the race for second place, with less than five weeks to go until crucial Scottish parliament elections. While the SNP retains a comfortable lead, Sir John Curtice, Britain’s leading pollster, said that the drop in Reform UK support was “bad news” for the nationalists. This is because it makes John Swinney’s aim of securing a majority harder to achieve, by tipping the balance in favour of unionist parties in a handful of crucial constituency seats in areas such as Edinburgh and the North East.
Lord Offord of Garvel , anointed by Farage as Reform UK’s Scottish leader in January, has had his tenure marked by controversy. Furthermore, Farage’s close association with President Trump may be a handicap for Reform UK in light of the Iran war. On the other side of the coin, voters’ divide on immigration indicates that there is a base of support Reform UK could tap into.
Where are we heading?
Roughly three weeks before the election, the polling shows that the SNP is doing well, and may be able to pick up an absolute majority. On the other side of the coin, voters see the cost of living and the economy as very pressing concerns and are not sure who to hold responsible. Reform UK could tap into this sentiment.
One thing is sure; we are in for a very interesting election.
More from Martin Burns
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