After a fraught contest, Kemi Badenoch claimed the title of Conservative Party leader more easily than many had expected, with 53,806 to Robert Jenrick’s 41,388 votes. Turnout was 72.8%, which some have mocked, but it’s actually not bad for a party whose members are now firmly in the older part of the population, a factor which makes voting more difficult for many. Some party members will no doubt be excited by the energy that the 44-year-old victor brings to the helm – but what do we know about her, and what is her leadership likely to mean for the party and the UK as a whole?
Born in London just two days into the 1980s, Badenoch was the child of immigrants and spent much of the early part of her life in Nigeria, but in other respects she was quite privileged. Her father was a doctor and her mother a professor, and she was able to take up residence in the UK with no difficulty when General Maïnassara seized power in a coup. Although she has referred to herself as “to all intents and purposes a first generation immigrant,” she experienced none of the difficulties faced by asylum seekers. Similarly, her professed experience of ‘becoming working class’ extended no further than working in McDonald’s while studying for the first of her two degrees.
A controversial choice
Despite her education in computer engineering and law, Badenoch has never been known for her intellectual curiosity, and indeed, a lot of criticism of her relates to her tendency to phrase arguments in simplistic terms, making no allowance for nuance. It is also this trait that appeals to a lot of Conservatives, who interpret it as a staunch defence of common sense. An ardent Brexiteer who has never lost her enthusiasm for severing ties with the EU, she has also distinguished herself with her determination to restrict migration not by using numerical targets, as others have done, but by picking and choosing who gets the opportunity to take up residence, claiming that not all cultures are equally valid.
Badenoch has made a habit of proclaiming her hostility to trans people, including stripping away the legally recognised genders of trans immigrants. She has been accused of mocking same-sex marriage, and she has also fallen foul of many people working for racial equality by condemning schools for teaching children about systemic racism. Though she claims to be a defender of women’s rights, she appeared to attack maternity pay during her leadership campaign, arguing that people should take more personal responsibility – going on to claim that she had been misinterpreted when members of the public – and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar – expressed outrage.
This outspoken, forceful approach no doubt served Badenoch well during that campaign, ensuring that she stayed in the headlines while her opponent struggled to get the same level of attention. Though one might hope that party members would be different, the reality is that name recognition plays a significant part in almost all elections. It has caused her problems elsewhere, however, as she has been dogged by accusations of bullying and her personal popularity among voters familiar with her is a mere 12%.
What does Badenoch’s election mean for Scotland?
In light of all the above, it will probably come as no surprise that Badenoch is a staunch opponent of Scottish independence. In fact, she’s not a fan on Scotland’s politics generally, considering it to be far too left wing, and objecting to the size of the state as maintained by the SNP and their Labour and Liberal Democrat predecessors. Recently elected Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay, who cautiously stayed on the sidelines during the leadership contest, has pledged to work alongside her in an effort to transform the country – a planned transformation which would seem to be in line with the policies roundly rejected at the general election in July.
Speaking at the most recent Conservative Party conference, Badenoch expressed a desire to “reprogramme devolution”, though it is not clear whether she was referring to cultural change or to a desire to rework the constitution. SNP depute leader Keith Brown has described her as “out of touch with the people of Scotland” and said that her win represented a lurch to the far right on the part of her party, bringing it close to the politics of Nigel Farage (whose party, Reform UK, is evenly split between support for her and dislike of her).
Sarwar was equally unimpressed, telling the Independent that “The first thing any new Tory leader should do is apologise to Scots for gambling with families’ savings, crashing the economy, and sending bills soaring while putting party before country”. The Scottish Greens, meanwhile, said that “The politics she represents are no basis for building a fairer society – as we saw over the last 14 years – and Scotland will continue to reject them at the ballot box.”
That latter assertion is backed up by MRP analysis from Electoral Calculus, which found that a Conservative Party led by Badenoch would fare worse than one led by Jenrick against all of its opponents. Though the Scottish sample used in this work was small, so there’s a large margin of error, it’s still quite striking to observe that the number of SNP seats at Westminster is predicted to rise from nine to 48.
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