Labour’s effort to reduce access to state support for disabled people through the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Bill has been so prominent in the media that Scots might easily assume it applies here too. For the most part, it doesn’t – but that doesn’t mean there won’t be consequences for Scots. Nor does it mean that a future Labour government at Holyrood might not introduce something similar – which, if it has already been accepted elsewhere in the UK, would be far harder to fight.
Starmer seeks to reassure Labour rebels
Many disabled Scots have expressed horror at the provisions of the bill, which would make it much harder to access support, especially for people with fluctuating health conditions. Ten of Scotland’s 37 Labour MPs signed a letter pledging to vote against it, along with 116 of their colleagues south of the border.
As a result of that letter, and concerns that losing the vote might place Keir Starmer’s leadership of the party in jeopardy, changes were made to the bill. These were announced on Friday by Rachel Reeves. They consist of changes to plans for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and Universal Credit (UC) so that current claimants will not be affected by the changes, with the new rules only applying to new claimants after November next year. It is unclear how this will affect people whose entitlement comes up for review, who move from children’s benefits onto adult ones, or who appeal after initially having their claims rejected.
MPs have been assured that these changes will calm down constituents who are worried about their own income. That may well be the case, but the wave of cross-border sympathy demonstrates that disabled people are not just thinking about themselves. Many are still outraged by the idea that people who become ill or disabled in future won’t get adequate support – so MPs with small majorities should still be nervous.
Disability benefits in Scotland
In Scotland, disability benefit is a devolved issue. Disabled people who need support are eligible for Adult Disability Payment (ADP), or Child Disability Payment (CDP) if they’re under 18. These will not be affected by legislative changes at Westminster. Universal Credit, however, is a UK-wide benefit. If the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Bill passes, the health element of it – designed to help people who are are unable to work due to illness or disability – will be reduced for new applicants after November 2026 and will be frozen so that it no longer keeps pace with inflation.
On top of this, there will be Barnett consequentials for Scotland to reckon with. If the bill passes, the consequent reduction in public spending will mean that Scotland’s grant is cut by a proportionate amount, making it harder for the Scottish government to balance the books. Savings will have to be made somewhere.
Finally, there will be economic consequences from the bill that will affect the whole of the UK. Starmer argues that it will prompt more disabled people to find work, but in fact, many of those on PIP are already in work – and some rely on the benefit in order to afford transport, so are likely to end up unemployed if they lose it. Disabled people face significant barriers to employment, and even if they didn’t, with unemployment running high, it’s not clear what jobs there are for them to go to.
The upshot of this is that many disabled people will be plunged into poverty, with some becoming destitute. The health consequences of this will add to the strain on the NHS, and their reduced spending power will have a negative impact on the economy as a whole. The spending power of friends and family members who dig into their own pockets to support them will also be affected.
Anas Sarwar and the upcoming Holyrood election
There’s another interesting aspect to the decision to suspend the changes until November 2026, which many Scots will have noticed straight away. The next Holyrood election is set to take place in May, so Labour can get that out of the way before we see the impact of the new policies.
With Anas Sarwar supporting the bill and strongly allying himself with Starmer, there are concerns among disabled people that a future Labour government could endeavour to pass similar legislation at Holyrood.
The fact that such a high proportion of Labour’s Scottish MPs rebelled might have been influenced by the proximity of the election, but equally it could be an indication that a substantial part of the Scottish party prioritises supporting those in need. Brian Lieshman of Alloa & Grangemouth has pledged to vote against the legislation at Westminster in spite of the changes. “The government should go and devise a welfare system with input from organisations and charities that know what life is like for disadvantaged and disabled and vulnerable people,” he said.
It is unclear how many of Leishman’s fellow rebels will do likewise. The SNP, which opposes the bill, has urged them to vote against it. Kirsty Blackman said “If these Labour Party cuts go ahead, they will embed discrimination into the Westminster welfare system – creating an unfair two-tier system of disability support that will punish younger disabled people and anyone who becomes sick, injured or disabled in future.”
The Liberal Democrats and the Greens on both sides of the border have also spoken out against the bill, while Kemi Badenoch is aiming to use Conservative votes for political leverage, calling on Starmer to make policy commitments in other areas if they are to do anything other than abstain.
Beyond the impact of the bill itself, critics fear that it is being treated as a test case for future regressive policy decisions. It would not be the first time that controversial ideas have been tested in one part of the UK before being introduced right across it. With pressure from the right to strip back the welfare state much further, Labour could be tempted to reduce other forms of support. It has, after all, already committed to retaining the two-child benefit cap.
On Tuesday, when the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Bill is presented in the House of Commons, Scots would be well advised to pay close attention.
