Scottish people had high hopes of seriously reducing carbon emissions when the power-sharing Bute House Agreement was agreed with the Scottish Greens, almost three years ago. The Scottish Government has now said that the 2030 net zero target must be scrapped because of a lack of cooperation from the Westminster Government. Yet the three areas where the least progress in decarbonisation has been made are all devolved.
No credible decarbonisation strategy
On 18th April 2024, the Scottish Government announced that it has scrapped its ambitious target to reduce carbon emissions by 75%, by 2030. This target was agreed by all political parties in Holyrood and made Scotland a ‘world leader’, at the UN climate change conference (COP 26) in 2021. It has now been dropped because the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has said that Scotland does not have a comprehensive strategy to decarbonise towards net zero and the Good Law Project was threatening legal action. Achieving the 75% target by 2030 would require a nine-fold increase in the overall decarbonisation rate, which is beyond credible. The Wellbeing Economy, Net Zero and Energy Secretary said that the government has been trying to implement the required policies to mitigate the effects of climate change with “one hand tied behind our back” due to a lack of cooperation from the Westminster Government.
But is the Westminster government to blame?
The CCC has stressed that a 75% reduction in overall carbon emissions in Scotland would mean that emissions from buildings would have to be cut by 71%, transport emissions by 44% and emissions from agriculture and land use by 11%. Housing, transport, agriculture and land use are all devolved matters.
Decarbonising housing in Scotland
According to the environmental charity, Changeworks, the Heat in Buildings bill is long overdue. This bill requires the implementation of ‘clean heating systems’ such as heat networks and heat pumps, as well as other electric systems like storage heaters. Although there are grants and interest-free loans available for the installation of these clean heating systems, via Home Energy Scotland, many Scots are unwilling to risk switching from gas-powered to electrically-powered central heating, while electricity costs four times as much as gas, per kWh.
The UK-wide price of electricity is calculated as though it is all made from gas, yet most of our electricity is now generated by Scottish wind turbines at a much lower cost. The price of gas and oil for home heating is also exempt from carbon tax! The Scottish government cannot reduce electricity prices because electricity generation and pricing are reserved for the Westminster government.
Wall and loft insulation can reduce heat loss by 60% and therefore make a significant impact on reducing the amount of energy needed for warm homes. While insulating the loft can be a low-cost, DIY job, the installation of the internal or external wall insulation needed for dwellings with solid walls requires more expertise and costs around £10,000 per dwelling. At current rates, insulating the more than 80% of approximately one million solid-walled homes (built before 1920’s) in Scotland that remain uninsulated will take many years, beyond 2030.
Decarbonising transport in Scotland
Scottish Ministers have dropped the option of removing all new petrol and diesel cars from the roads in order to meet the 2030 target. This option became unsustainable in September last year when UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak dealt a blow to EV manufacturers by announcing a five-year delay to the UK’s fossil fuelled cars phase-out, from 2030 to 2035.
The new Scottish plan includes 24,000 additional charging points for electric vehicles by 2030 and an integrated ticketing system for all public transport.
A frequent flyer levy, which would disincentive people from taking multiple flights in a given year, was ruled out by the Scottish government in 2022, despite this policy being in the Scottish Green Party’s manifesto and recommended by the CCC. Meanwhile, Transform Scotland has called for a halt to all new road-building projects paid for under city region deals and being developed jointly with the UK government. These projects were developed without any carbon assessments or reference to Scotland’s climate targets.
Decarbonising agriculture and land use in Scotland
Organic farmers use less intensive methods that reduce carbon emissions, including the elimination of inputs derived from fossil fuels. Unfortunately, the number of organic farms in Scotland is tiny, occupying just 2% of total farmland and has even declined in recent years. It is hoped that there will be increased payments for farmers wanting to convert to organic agriculture in the Agriculture and Rural Communities Bill.
The Scottish government was committed to planting 18,000 hectares of new woodland each year by 2024 and restoring at least 250,000 hectares of peatland by 2030. The CCC says Scotland needs to double its recent rate of woodland development and triple the rate of peatland restoration.
However, despite 20 years of Scottish land reform, two-thirds of rural land is still privately-owned, with half, or 3.2mn hectares, being held by just 433 people and companies. Many of these big landowners are profiting from the sale of carbon credits, gained from planting trees and restoring peatlands. Weapons manufacturers, the oil giant Shell, and financial institutions which poured billions of pounds into fossil fuels are among firms buying Scottish carbon credits (or carbon ‘offsets’), which can either be ‘netted off’ against the owner’s emissions or sold on to other overseas emitters via emissions-trading schemes. This is prompting critics to claim that Scotland is experiencing an era of ‘rampant carbon capitalism’. It has also led to soaring land prices and prevented local people from benefiting from the land decarbonisation process.
Is Westminster to blame for this embarrassing failure to decarbonise?
It is clear that to significantly reduce Scotland’s carbon emissions requires more funding for home insulation, clean heat technologies, farm payments and for developing a green transport infrastructure. The Net Zero Secretary, Màiri McAllan has complained of severe budgetary restrictions imposed by the UK government and the need to reverse the 9% cut to the capital budget. However, many people will say that the majority SNP/Green government has squandered its golden opportunity to implement the radical policies needed, to cut emissions and fulfil the solemn pledge made at COP 26: “keep 1.5 alive”.
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