The debate around independence has dominated Scottish politics for over a decade. Ever since the failure of the 2014 referendum many are calling for Indyref2. But is it right or wrong for the UK Government to block a fresh referendum?
The SNP Government, with the backing of the Scottish Parliament, requested the UK Government to grant a Section 30 Order to hold a second referendum; each time the answer being ‘no’. When it was argued before the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom in late 2022 the court unnanimously ruled against the Scottish Government.
But is it right that the UK Government should block Holyrood’s demands for a second referendum? Or should the people of Scotland have another vote on independence?
The generational conundrum
In the foreword to the Scottish Government’s 2013 white paper on independence – Scotland’s Future – then First Minister Alex Salmond wrote that the 2014 referendum would be a “rare and precious moment in the history of Scotland – a once in a generation opportunity to chart a better way”. The government’s white paper was updated in a series of papers entitled Building a New Scotland, published between 2022 and 2024.
But what is a generation? A generation is often considered to be about 20-30 years. If we were to go on this alone then the next referendum shouldn’t be due until after 2034. But then, what is a political generation? That’s like asking how long is a piece of string? Two examples come to mind however; the time between the two Scottish devolution referendums, and the two EU referendums.
There were 18 years between the two Scottish devolution referendums (1979 and 1997), while 41 years passed between the 1975 European Communities membership vote and the 2016 EU referendum. Even looking at the lesser time period, we are still eight years away from the next political generation.
SNP election victories and mandates
Despite the 2014 independence referendum, the Scottish National Party has done extremely well electorally – their most notable victory being the landslide election victory in the 2015 UK General Election when they achieved 50% of the popular vote, and 56 out of 59 seats.
But the results in the subsequent Scottish Parliamentary elections of 2016 and 2021 are what should really be the focus. SNP MPs can’t achieve a second Scottish referendum in Westminster, an SNP Government in Holyrood can. And in elections for the Scottish Parliament the SNP have been securing big victories.
The SNP won the Scottish Parliament election in 2016 with 63 seats (two short of a majority). This, in a proportional voting system designed to stop political parties winning overall majorities, is impressive. When the result of the pro-independence Scottish Greens is added on, the number of pro-independence MSPs in Holyrood was 69 – a majority of four. In 2021, the SNP’s list vote, combined with the pro-independence Green and Alba parties’ list vote totalled 50%. The SNP’s and Greens ’ seats rose to 72 pro-independence MSPs elected to the Scottish Parliament.
That’s a majority endorsement for not only the SNP but pro-independence parties overall and with the SNP 2016 and 2021 manifestos both stating commitments to an independence referendum, it can be said that there was a mandate given to the Scottish Government to hold one.
When the generation passes by
Alex Salmond said the referendum was a once in a generation event, but what happens when that generation passes? If we take the minimum time for a generation, 20 years, we are already at the halfway mark. On 18 September this year it will be ten years since the question was last asked. A lot has happened since then that could potentially sway public opinion either way.
Whoever takes the keys to Downing Street in the upcoming general election will not grant another Scottish independence referendum during their parliamentary term. But once the next prime minister’s term ends, it will be fifteen years since the referendum and very close to the next generation.
Given a decade has passed with so much having happened during it, let alone what could potentially happen over the next ten years, it will be harder for a UK Government to argue that “now is not the time” for an independence vote or that the decision was made in 2014. Especially when polling for Scottish independence this year shows an average support of 50% in favour, compared to a 49% average last year and a 48% average the year before.
Whereas it is very unlikely for any UK Government to green-light a Scottish independence referendum in the near future, it can be argued that despite the result of the referendum, the people of Scotland seem to be looking at independence ever so slightly more.
Personally, I believe the decision was made in 2014 and I agree with it being a once in a generation vote. But given the SNP are winning elections based on a mandate to hold another referendum, I am inclined to sympathise with their calls for a fresh vote. That seems to be what people have voted for. But once the generation passes, which it is close to doing so now anyway, I don’t believe anyone should stand in the way of a second referendum. There will be a new generation of Scots who have never had a say in their nation’s constitution. The choice of whether Scotland should be an independent country is for them, and all the Scottish people, to decide.
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