Since the founding of Israel in 1948, American support for Israel has been rock solid. New polling out from Quinnipiac University shows that American support is no longer something that Israel can automatically count on. This is a major development that could totally reconfigure the politics of the Mideast.
When respondents are asked, “From what you know about the situation in the Middle East, do your sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?” 36% say the Israelis, 37% say the Palestinians and 27% say they do not know. Two-thirds of Republicans (66%) identify with the Israelis while a similar number of Democrats (63%) identify with the Palestinians. Independent voters tilt towards the Palestinians (32% Israelis, 40% Palestinians, 28% do not know).
Americans oppose military aid to Israel
On the question of US military aid to Israel and their efforts in the war against Hammas, fully 60% are opposed while roughly a third (32%) support the aid. Republicans are the most supportive of aid to Israel and to supportive of its war against Hamas (56% support versus 37% who oppose). Three in four Democrats oppose aid to Israel as do two-thirds of independent voters.
Plurality of Americans see Israel as committing genocide
Half of all Americans agree that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza while 35% disagree and 15% are not sure. Among Republicans, 64% say that Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza. A decisive 77% of Democrats believe that Israel is committing genocide. A narrow majority of independent voters (51%) see Israel as committing genocide while just over one in three disagree.
American support for Israel used to be bipartisan, but clearly those days are long gone. This issue is now polarised along Republican/Democratic lines. For Democrats, the grassroots strongly oppose aid to Israel and sees Israel as guilty of genocide. We can conclude that the issue of aid to Israel will continue to divide the Democrat leadership from their grassroots.
Netanyahu has created a huge strategic problem: Aid for Israel is now a partisan issue
Right now, with Republicans in control of all branches of government, Israel does not need to worry about American support. However, the 2026 midterm elections are not far away. It is quite possible that the Democrats will win back at least one house – Congress. This situation would jeopardise the support Israel has always counted on. If the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu studies American polling data, he must conclude that he has a real strategic problem on his hands; as the support which Israel has depended on for decades is now in jeopardy. He also must conclude that this problem is entirely of his own making.
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