Most of the Holyrood election results were already in, most of the headlines already drafted, when Adam Harley discovered that he was to be the new MSP for Strathkelvin and Bearsden – yet his was one of the day’s most impressive accomplishments. Why? Because the Bishopbriggs-based healthcare advocate, who came in sixth when he ran for the Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch seat at the 2024 general election, managed to increase the Liberal Democrats vote by an amazing 25.1% in order to secure victory.
Other Lib Dem victories were similarly impressive. Andrew Baxter led an improvement of 23.7% to take Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch from the SNP, while Sanne Dijkstra-Downie secured a notional increase of 17.6% to win the new constituency of Edinburgh Northern. Meanwhile, the only seat they failed to defend was Shetland. While this shocked many seasoned commentators, there isn’t really much of a mystery to it. Their candidate, Emma Macdonald, had made a number of unpopular decisions as leader of the local council, so never enjoyed much public support, and the SNP poured resources into what was, for it, a key target seat.
Modest gains speak to growing support
In the long term, it’s not always the big gains that count in politics. They tend to have a lot to do with personality and the resources that parties are able to commit to specific campaigns. What happens in non-target seats is often more telling. At this election, the Lib Dems vote saw an increase of 3% to 5% in numerous constituencies across all regions. This had the immediate advantage of gaining them three list MSPs, bringing their total number of representatives at Holyrood to 10. The long term advantage, however, is likely to be more significant.
The thing about modest gains of this sort, made in circumstances where voters could not reasonably expect that their chosen candidates would actually be elected, is that they are unlikely to roll back. On the contrary, they are likely to constitute a growing bedrock of support, creating the potential for further growth in future elections.
Though their numbers have ebbed and flowed since the creation of the Scottish Parliament, the Lib Dems have primarily been considered a northern party, bringing a practical approach to managing the needs of large rural constituencies and semi-isolated island economies. Their ability to win constituencies as far south as Strathkelvin and Bearsden should therefore make people sit up and take notice. What is going on?
The secret of Lib Dems success?
How can we explain the progress made by this comparatively modest party at a tumultuous time in Scottish politics? Three possibilities present themselves.
- Defenders of liberal values
We are living in a time when human rights and civil liberties are increasingly under attack. The UK Government’s inclination towards authoritarianism, including its restriction on the rights to protest and public assembly, is deeply unpopular with many voters. The same can be said of its treatment of vulnerable minority groups like disabled people, immigrants and trans people. If one wishes to protest against this sort of thing, there’s no point in voting for Reform. The Lib Dems may feel like the obvious choice. Should they get in, they can generally be relied upon to speak up.
- The new paternalists
In light of the above, one might wonder why a Lib Dem would do well in traditionally Conservative areas like Bearsden. Understanding this requires an understanding of Scotland’s traditional relationship to Conservatism, which differs from that of England. Occasionally Edinburgh aligns itself with the southern model, and is seduced by neoliberalism, but in the rural areas of Scotland where Conservatism has historically been solid, it’s the older, paternalist strain – the one interested in actually conserving things – that people like. Now that Trussonomics et al have made the Conservative Party itself toxic, the Lib Dems are the closest fit.
- The safe Unionist choice
It has been noted by many political commentators that Scottish politics has two axes: left to right, and for or against independence. For those on the Unionist side, this has been a difficult election. Some have clearly been attracted to Reform, but by any measure, theirs is an extreme position, and their performance in local councils like Kent has not exactly inspired confidence. The Conservatives have the legacy of serious mismanagement, partygate and so forth to deal with, while Labour has drifted away from its traditional base, with Keir Starmer clinging on despite having lost public trust. For many people with moderate values, this leaves the Lib Dems looking like the only sensible option.
In truth, the Liberal Democrats’ success probably owes something to all three of these factors, which illustrate how they have been able to draw support from across a large part of the political spectrum. Furthermore, in seats where the SNP remains so dominant that it’s unlikely any other party will defeat them, there is nothing to lose by voting Liberal Democrats. Until and unless the other Unionist parties return to their roots, they are likely to keep growing within that space. Were they to adopt a neutral position on independence, neither promoting the idea nor opposing a referendum, they might well draw support from the other parties too, and find a comfortable spot at the true centre of politics with the potential to become an appealing prospective coalition partner for almost anyone.
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