A petition calling on the Westminster Government to hold a public inquiry into Russian interference in UK politics and democracy topped 100,000 signatures. That means a debate in Parliament will be considered, though a resulting public inquiry is far from assured.
We know Russia has form. In 2020, Westminster’s Intelligence and Security Committee published a report that said, “there is substantial evidence that Russian interference in British politics is commonplace”. That included activities to influence the 2014 Scottish Independence referendum and the Brexit vote in 2016.
That inquiry was led by a committee of MPs and Lords, not the Conservative Government of the day. When eventually, Boris Johnson permitted its publication it was heavily redacted. There was no public smoking gun. Now there is.
On 21 November, Nathan Gill, the former leader of the Reform Party in Wales was sentenced to ten years and six months in prison. He took bribes from a Russian agent. In return, he promoted Russia’s interest when he was a member of the European Parliament. Gill became part of Russia’s espionage machine.
The question is: are there any other members of Reform taking Putin’s cash, or in any other political party? How about the diplomatic corps, senior public sector jobs, universities, business or finance?
Russia an aggressor state
Despite Vladimir Putin’s frequent claims that Russia is no threat to Europe, it has an established track record as an aggressor state; invading Ukraine in 2022, annexing Crimea and, in 2008, attacking Georgia. Russia may not have covetous eyes on the UK itself, but it does want to minimise Britain’s influence in NATO, with the EU and the US and globally.
The latest US attempts at a Ukraine peace deal appear stalled. The EU’s Ursula Von der Leyen says Russia has “no real intent” of engaging in serious peace discussions.
“The ‘Russian playbook’ of aggression has not changed, and Ukraine could be just the start,” she says.
Speaking at a meeting of the Royal Philosophical Society of Glasgow on 26 November, former BBC Moscow Correspondent and Kremlin expert, Martin Sixsmith said that hardliners to the right of Putin have been urging him to be more forceful on Ukraine. Tactical or ‘theatre’ nuclear weapons have been mentioned. Even London has been cited as a suitable city to attack. Those hardliners suggest dropping a nuclear weapon on London would demonstrate Russia’s resolve and possibly deter the UK or anyone else from retaliatory action.
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Cybercrime – a military and business threat
The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) says there’s been “a 30% increase in Russian vessels threatening UK waters in recent years.” Russian threats come from aircraft, drones, submarines, surface warships and so called ‘research’ vessels that are, in fact, spy ships. Intelligence sources believe Russia is mapping the complex weave of underwater cables that connect the UK to the global telecommunications highway and bring electricity onto the mainland from remote wind farms and other countries.
On 25 November, the MOD said it had joined with the US, and Australia in sanctioning ‘Media Land’ – a Russian cybercrime group responsible for facilitating cyber-attacks on UK-based companies.
Among the giants of the British business scene, no sector comes bigger than financial services. Its size and range of expertise mean London competes with New York to be the world’s No1 finance location. It faces growing competition following Brexit from France and Dublin and from the rise of Asian financial centres.
Any dent in global confidence in the UK’s ability to trade uninterrupted worldwide, every hour of every day would be jumped on by competitors. A large-scale cyberattack on British finance would additionally damage our national finances. Last year, the banking sector paid just short of £49bn in taxes to the UK Treasury.
Predictability almost certainty
For almost all of the past 80 years, we in the UK have relied on NATO and its biggest financial and military member, the US, to provide us with a shield of security. While Donald Trump is in the White House that position is far from certain. In any alliance, mutual confidence is essential. The actions of each ally, especially in international military affairs, must be predicable, almost to the point of certainty. That’s not a state we currently enjoy with Donald Trump.
Euro News reported on 26 November that America’s ambassador to Germany has suggested that a German eventually holds the post of Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, a role held only by an American since the foundation of the alliance in 1949. How long can NATO as we know it last?
Not long, according to the USA’s National Security Strategy, published on 3 December. It describes a seismic change in US foreign and defence policy. It says America will distance itself from the great post-war institutions created to try to keep the world from war. The authors cite the UN and NATO, arguing they “undermine the character of our nation.”
It’s in the best interests of the UK to keep the US as the prime mover in NATO. Donald Trump and his brand of politics may not survive
But we can’t be sure a new administration coming in after Trump will simply pick up the NATO reins as if nothing has changed in the interim. America can never be quite the same country again. Our long recent friendship will not be easily rekindled. However, there is no evidence of any kind that America wishes us ill.
That cannot be said of Russia. A real and present danger exists. We have what may be a general election of great consequence in 2029. We must know long beforehand that it will be a scrupulously fair one. We can expect no moral support from the US.
It is critical that we establish the nature, size and immediacy of the Russian threat. We can then frame appropriate foreign and defence policies. There is no time to lose. Time for Keir Starmer to order a public inquiry.
This article was first published in The Scotsman on 3 December 2025.
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